A 27.8% / 25.7% / 46.5% split off ratings of 1457 and 1588. One half each — Amal Tiznit in front on 0.86, Kawkab Marrakech behind on 0.66.
Rating separation comes to 131 points. With 8 and 126 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Most likely single result is Kawkab Marrakech on 46.5%. Raw profiles are 0.86 and 1.09 against 0.78 and 0.66. Its rounded call is 0-1. Played and finished 0-1. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -43 and +88. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Expected shares 40.6% against 59.4% on Elo. Expected goals come out at 0.84 to 1.15. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. 74.3% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Kawkab Marrakech sits 18.7 points above the next most likely result. A 20.8-point range top to bottom. 0-1 tops the scoreline distribution on 15.7%.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
Amal Tiznit's previous five results comprised one win, one draw and three defeats. Their goal totals were 6 scored and 11 conceded. Latest: a 2-1 defeat at home to CODM Meknès on 24 October.
On 24 October, CODM Meknès faced Amal Tiznit in Botola Pro: Amal Tiznit lost 1-2 at home, having scored one and conceded two. Botola Pro, 18 October brought an away meeting with Wydad AC; Amal Tiznit drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Amal Tiznit hosted Difaa EL Jadida on 10 October (Botola Pro) and lost 2-5; their goals totalled two, compared with five conceded. FUS Rabat hosted Amal Tiznit (Botola Pro) on 2 October. For Amal Tiznit, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 1-3 was Amal Tiznit's result against Ittihad Tanger on 24 September (Botola Pro), playing at home; Amal Tiznit lost, with one scored to three conceded.
seven goals for and five against accompanied Kawkab Marrakech's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings. On 25 October, Kawkab Marrakech recorded a 1-1 draw hosting Difaa EL Jadida.
The 25 October fixture (Botola Pro) paired Kawkab Marrakech with Difaa EL Jadida. Kawkab Marrakech drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing away from home against Widad Témara (Botola Pro), Kawkab Marrakech finished 1-0 on 18 October. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 10 October: Kawkab Marrakech won 2-1 against Ittihad Tanger at home in Botola Pro, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against CODM Meknès in Botola Pro, Kawkab Marrakech scored one and conceded zero on 3 October; the away from home result was 1-0. Kawkab Marrakech's at home game on 27 September (Botola Pro) ended 2-3 against Hassania Agadir, with two goals for and three against.
After the match
Kawkab Marrakech edged past Amal Tiznit 1-0 on 31 October 2026. Jawad rhabra opened the scoring in the 41st minute for Kawkab Marrakech, set up by Youssef Raiani, to make it 1-0. (92') was sent off. 7 players were booked, among them haimoud abdallah (13'), ayoub maamouri al (23'), S. P. Sodiq (35'), Jawad rhabra (42'), Mohamed Dadsi (69') and Oussama hafari (86'). The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Kawkab Marrakech 131 points stronger than Amal Tiznit. Kawkab Marrakech are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form. Amal Tiznit: one yellow card. Amal Tiznit made five changes. Kawkab Marrakech: six yellow cards and one red card. four changes were recorded for Kawkab Marrakech. Kawkab Marrakech finished with a clean sheet.