Prior record: 1-7-4 across 12 since 2020. Most recent 2026, 1-2 in Botola Pro. Currently 1716 against 1763 — a 38.9% / 27.4% / 33.7% split.
Both figures rest on decent samples, 189 and 320 matches. The away side is rated higher. The four component numbers read 0.93, 0.54, 0.89, 0.51. The single-scoreline output is 0-0. The rating gap itself is 47 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. 72.6% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Most weight falls on 0-0 at 26.1%. The tie closed out 0-0. On expected goals the model has it 0.69 against 0.65. The gap between first and second outcome is 5.2 points, Maghreb Fès ahead of Renaissance Berkane. The component ratings barely separate them — 0.93 and 0.89 for scoring, 0.54 and 0.51 for conceding — so the model is not leaning on a stylistic mismatch here. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Maghreb Fès carries the largest share, 38.9%. All three results are bunched inside 11.5 points. Expected shares on the Elo curve: 52.6% and 47.4%.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
Maghreb Fès: two wins, two draws and one defeat over five games; six goals scored, five conceded. Latest: a 2-1 win away to ASEC Mimosas on 25 October.
2-1 was Maghreb Fès's result against ASEC Mimosas on 25 October (CAF Champions League), playing away from home; Maghreb Fès won, with two scored to one conceded. The 18 October fixture (CAF Champions League) paired Maghreb Fès with ASEC Mimosas. Maghreb Fès drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing away from home against Ittihad Tanger (Botola Pro), Maghreb Fès finished 1-2 on 14 October. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 8 October: Maghreb Fès drew 0-0 against Raja Casablanca at home in Botola Pro, scoring zero goals and allowing zero. Against Hassania Agadir in Botola Pro, Maghreb Fès scored two and conceded one on 3 October; the away from home result was 2-1.
Renaissance Berkane: two wins and three draws over five games; five goals scored, two conceded, keeping four clean sheets, unbeaten. Star Sport Academy were their latest opponents, at home on 24 October: a 1-0 win.
On 24 October, Star Sport Academy faced Renaissance Berkane in CAF Champions League: Renaissance Berkane won 1-0 at home, having scored one and conceded zero. CAF Champions League, 17 October brought an away meeting with Star Sport Academy; Renaissance Berkane won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Renaissance Berkane hosted CR Khemis Zemamra on 13 October (Botola Pro) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. UTS Rabat hosted Renaissance Berkane (Botola Pro) on 8 October. For Renaissance Berkane, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 0-0 was Renaissance Berkane's result against Moghreb Tetouan on 27 September (Botola Pro), playing away from home; Renaissance Berkane drew, with zero scored to zero conceded.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-1 away win for Renaissance Berkane on 21 June and a 1-1 draw at Renaissance Berkane on 5 April.
After the match
Maghreb Fès and Renaissance Berkane could not be separated in a goalless draw at Complexe Sportif de Fès, Fès on 29 October 2026. Youssef Aït Bennasser (47'), Oussama nourdine (75'), H. Raji (82') and Diogo Calila (84') were booked. Renaissance Berkane are unbeaten in the latest 8 matches of their recorded form in the 2025/26 Botola Pro, the 2026/27 Botola Pro and the 2026/27 CAF Champions League. Maghreb Fès picked up two yellow cards. Maghreb Fès: three substitutions. The card tally for Renaissance Berkane was two yellow cards. four changes were recorded for Renaissance Berkane. Maghreb Fès conceded no goals. A clean sheet for Renaissance Berkane.