A draw is doing more work in this distribution than usual: 26.5%, with the two wins on 30.6% and 42.9%.
Spread across the three results is 16.4 points. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Widad Témara: only 5 rated matches. The underlying goal expectation is 0.75 for Moghreb Tetouan, 1.41 for Widad Témara. A 12.3-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Ratings sit 108 apart. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Top of the distribution: Widad Témara, 42.9%. The tie closed out 0-3. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 43.8% to 56.2%. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 0-1. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. The model gives 73.5% to someone winning. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -88 and +20. There is no trade-off to weigh: Widad Témara scores at the higher rate (0.97 to 0.57) and concedes at the lower (0.89 to 1.07). 0-1 tops the scoreline distribution on 16.3%. Attack/defence pairs: 0.57/1.07 and 0.97/0.89.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Moghreb Tetouan's previous five results comprised four draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 2 scored and 5 conceded, keeping three clean sheets, with no wins. Latest: a 4-1 defeat away to Difaa EL Jadida on 17 October.
1-4 was Moghreb Tetouan's result against Difaa EL Jadida on 17 October (Botola Pro), playing away from home; Moghreb Tetouan lost, with one scored to four conceded. The 9 October fixture (Botola Pro) paired Moghreb Tetouan with FUS Rabat. Moghreb Tetouan drew 0-0 at home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Ittihad Tanger (Botola Pro), Moghreb Tetouan finished 1-1 on 2 October. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 27 September: Moghreb Tetouan drew 0-0 against Renaissance Berkane at home in Botola Pro, scoring zero goals and allowing zero. Against Fath Casablanca in Throne Cup, Moghreb Tetouan scored zero and conceded zero on 15 May; the at home result was 0-0.
Widad Témara: one win and three defeats over four games; three goals scored, four conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Latest: a 1-0 defeat at home to Kawkab Marrakech on 18 October.
0-1 was Widad Témara's result against Kawkab Marrakech on 18 October (Botola Pro), playing at home; Widad Témara lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 8 October fixture (Botola Pro) paired Widad Témara with FAR Rabat. Widad Témara lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing at home against UTS Rabat (Botola Pro), Widad Témara finished 0-1 on 2 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 26 September: Widad Témara won 3-1 against Wydad AC away from home in Botola Pro, scoring three goals and allowing one.
After the match
Widad Témara comfortably beat Moghreb Tetouan 3-0 at Stade Saniat Rmel, Tetouan on 24 October 2026. Abdallah cherrad opened the scoring 59 minutes into the game for Widad Témara, set up by Zakaria Oulbenna, to make it 1-0. Akram Khouidsi added to the tally 62 minutes into the game for Widad Témara, set up by Zakaria Labib, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Widad Témara extended the lead through Othman Sabri late on, in the 81st minute to make it 3-0. eddine diae eddaoudi (11'), Akram Khouidsi (69') and (96') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Widad Témara 108 points stronger than Moghreb Tetouan. Every goal came after the interval. Moghreb Tetouan picked up one yellow card. Moghreb Tetouan: five substitutions. Widad Témara: two yellow cards. three changes were recorded for Widad Témara. Widad Témara finished with a clean sheet.