The stalemate is the notable number here: 26.9%, with the wins on 31.9% and 41.2%.
The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 13.1% leads, but only just. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. A 9.3-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The model gives 73.1% to someone winning. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 45.4% to 54.6%. The split is one apiece: Amal Tiznit leads the attacking rate on 0.86, CODM Meknès the defensive on 0.88. The three results cover 14.3 points. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 8 and 65 matches. Attack/defence pairs: 0.86/1.09 and 0.83/0.88. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The tie closed out 1-2. The underlying goal expectation is 1.13 for Amal Tiznit, 1.22 for CODM Meknès. Rounded, that is 1-1. Most likely single result is CODM Meknès on 41.2%. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -43 and +54. A 97-point spread sits between the two figures. The higher rating belongs to the away side.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Amal Tiznit: one win, two draws and two defeats over five games; six goals scored, ten conceded. Wydad AC were their latest opponents, away on 18 October: a 1-1 draw.
Playing away from home against Wydad AC (Botola Pro), Amal Tiznit finished 1-1 on 18 October. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 10 October: Amal Tiznit lost 2-5 against Difaa EL Jadida at home in Botola Pro, scoring two goals and allowing five. Against FUS Rabat in Botola Pro, Amal Tiznit scored one and conceded zero on 2 October; the away from home result was 1-0. Amal Tiznit's at home game on 24 September (Botola Pro) ended 1-3 against Ittihad Tanger, with one goal for and three against. On 21 July, Olympique Dcheïra faced Amal Tiznit in Botola Pro: Amal Tiznit drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one.
CODM Meknès came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding five. A 1-0 win at home to UTS Rabat (17 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 6-2 away to Difaa EL Jadida on 26 September.
The 17 October fixture (Botola Pro) paired CODM Meknès with UTS Rabat. CODM Meknès won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Wydad AC (Botola Pro), CODM Meknès finished 0-0 on 11 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 3 October: CODM Meknès lost 0-1 against Kawkab Marrakech at home in Botola Pro, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Difaa EL Jadida in Botola Pro, CODM Meknès scored six and conceded two on 26 September; the away from home result was 6-2. CODM Meknès's away from home game on 5 July (Botola Pro) ended 1-2 against Ittihad Tanger, with one goal for and two against.
After the match
CODM Meknès edged past Amal Tiznit 2-1 on 24 October 2026. Ayoub Lakhlifi opened the scoring in the 16th minute for CODM Meknès, set up by Saad Morsli, to make it 1-0. Taoufik Razko added to the tally late on, in the 82nd minute for CODM Meknès to make it 2-0. Z. Essalhi pulled one back late on, in the 85th minute for Amal Tiznit, set up by K. Noureddine, to make it 1-2. M. Tounkara (36') and Ayoub Lourhraz (75') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: CODM Meknès are 97 points stronger than Amal Tiznit. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. The card tally for Amal Tiznit was one yellow card. four changes were recorded for Amal Tiznit. CODM Meknès: one yellow card. CODM Meknès made four changes.