A 59.4% / 22.6% / 18.0% split off ratings of 1570 and 1482. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 0.93 to 0.81 says Amal Tiznit, 0.87 to 1.09 says Wydad AC.
Amal Tiznit's side of that rests on 6 rated matches, so treat it as provisional. Attack/defence pairs: 0.81/0.87 and 0.93/1.09. The three results cover 41.4 points. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +70 and -18. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The higher rating expects 70.7% of the points, the lower 29.3%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 13.0%. The leading outcome clears the second by 36.8 points. As a single number the model says 1-1. The model's preferred outcome is Wydad AC at 59.4%. A 88-point spread sits between the two figures. Played and finished 1-1. Goal expectation splits 1.31 to 1.09. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. A decisive result carries 77.4% against 22.6% for the draw.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Wydad AC: one win, one draw and three defeats over five games; four goals scored, seven conceded. CODM Meknès were their latest opponents, at home on 11 October: a 0-0 draw.
Playing at home against CODM Meknès (Botola Pro), Wydad AC finished 0-0 on 11 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 3 October: Wydad AC won 2-0 against Difaa EL Jadida away from home in Botola Pro, scoring two goals and allowing zero. Against Widad Témara in Botola Pro, Wydad AC scored one and conceded three on 26 September; the at home result was 1-3. Wydad AC's at home game on 5 July (Botola Pro) ended 1-2 against UTS Rabat, with one goal for and two against. On 2 July, Renaissance Berkane faced Wydad AC in Botola Pro: Wydad AC lost 0-2 away from home, having scored zero and conceded two.
five goals for and nine against accompanied Amal Tiznit's one win, two draws and two defeats across five outings. On 10 October, Amal Tiznit recorded a 5-2 defeat hosting Difaa EL Jadida.
10 October: Amal Tiznit lost 2-5 against Difaa EL Jadida at home in Botola Pro, scoring two goals and allowing five. Against FUS Rabat in Botola Pro, Amal Tiznit scored one and conceded zero on 2 October; the away from home result was 1-0. Amal Tiznit's at home game on 24 September (Botola Pro) ended 1-3 against Ittihad Tanger, with one goal for and three against. On 21 July, Olympique Dcheïra faced Amal Tiznit in Botola Pro: Amal Tiznit drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. Botola Pro, 18 July brought a home meeting with Olympique Dcheïra; Amal Tiznit drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded.
After the match
Wydad AC and Amal Tiznit drew 1-1 at Stade Mohamed V, Casablanca on 18 October 2026. Z. Essalhi opened the scoring from the penalty spot 53 minutes into the game for Amal Tiznit to make it 1-0. Silvère Ganvoula levelled it from the penalty spot 62 minutes into the game for Wydad AC to make it 1-1. O. Houssni (26') was booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Wydad AC are 88 points stronger than Amal Tiznit. Wydad AC: two substitutions. Amal Tiznit picked up one yellow card. Amal Tiznit: five substitutions.