4 meetings sit in the record, first in 2024, aggregate 1-3. The latest was 2026, 0-2 in Botola Pro. Currently 1541 against 1575 — a 41.0% / 26.9% / 32.1% split.
Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 0-0. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. The match finished 1-0. Raw profiles are 0.79 and 0.89 against 0.82 and 0.74. Of the individual scorelines, 0-0 carries the most weight at 15.8% — 0-1 is next at 15.5%. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 54.4% to 45.6%. The away side is rated higher. Expected goals 0.86-0.98. The two ratings differ by 34 points. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 64 and 126 rated matches respectively. UTS Rabat is ahead on each half — 0.82 to 0.79 in attack, 0.74 to 0.89 in defence. Scorelines above 8%: 4. The distribution runs from 41.0% down to 26.9%. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +41 and +75. Most likely single result is CODM Meknès on 41.0%. Someone wins 73.1% of the time by this model. CODM Meknès holds a 8.9-point edge on the next outcome.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
ten goals for and seven against accompanied CODM Meknès's two wins, one draw and two defeats across five outings. On 11 October, CODM Meknès recorded a 0-0 draw visiting Wydad AC; their biggest win in that spell was 6-2 away to Difaa EL Jadida on 26 September.
The 11 October fixture (Botola Pro) paired CODM Meknès with Wydad AC. CODM Meknès drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Kawkab Marrakech (Botola Pro), CODM Meknès finished 0-1 on 3 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 26 September: CODM Meknès won 6-2 against Difaa EL Jadida away from home in Botola Pro, scoring six goals and allowing two. Against Ittihad Tanger in Botola Pro, CODM Meknès scored one and conceded two on 5 July; the away from home result was 1-2. CODM Meknès's at home game on 2 July (Botola Pro) ended 3-2 against FAR Rabat, with three goals for and two against.
UTS Rabat were unbeaten in their last five games, with three wins and two draws, scoring seven goals and conceding two, keeping three clean sheets. A 0-0 draw at home to Renaissance Berkane (8 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to El Massira on 21 July.
Botola Pro, 8 October brought a home meeting with Renaissance Berkane; UTS Rabat drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. UTS Rabat visited Widad Témara on 2 October (Botola Pro) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. FUS Rabat travelled to face UTS Rabat (Botola Pro) on 26 September. For UTS Rabat, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 3-0 was UTS Rabat's result against El Massira on 21 July (Botola Pro), playing at home; UTS Rabat won, with three scored to zero conceded. The 17 July fixture (Botola Pro) paired UTS Rabat with El Massira. UTS Rabat drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-0 home win for UTS Rabat on 17 June and a 1-1 draw at CODM Meknès on 31 January.
After the match
CODM Meknès edged past UTS Rabat 1-0 at Stade d'Honneur, Meknes on 17 October 2026. Our current Elo ratings make UTS Rabat slightly the stronger side, by 34 rating points over CODM Meknès, even though it was CODM Meknès who won this one. CODM Meknès won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 4 meetings without a win.