Across 12 recorded meetings back to 2021 the split is 1-7-4 from Maghreb Fès's side on wins, 7-11 on goals. The last was 2026, 0-2 in Botola Pro. The present numbers are 1707 against 1725, and the model turns that into 43.6% / 26.4% / 30.1%.
Played and finished 0-0. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Raja Casablanca has the better scoring rate (1.05) and Maghreb Fès the better defensive one (0.51). 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Expected shares on the Elo curve: 56.7% and 43.3%. Win-or-lose totals 73.7%; the draw takes the rest. 0-0 is the single most probable result at 22.2%, clear of 1-0 on 17.5%. Expected goals sit at 0.79 against 0.72. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 0-0. The model's preferred outcome is Maghreb Fès at 43.6%. 18 points of rating separation. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +207 and +225. A 13.5-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The distribution runs from 43.6% down to 26.4%. In absolute terms: Maghreb Fès 0.93/0.51, Raja Casablanca 1.05/0.57 on attack and defence. The away side is rated higher. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 180 and 336 matches.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
ten goals for and three against accompanied Maghreb Fès's four wins and one draw across five outings, an unbeaten run. A 2-1 win away to Hassania Agadir (3 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Rahimo on 6 September.
The 3 October fixture (Botola Pro) paired Maghreb Fès with Hassania Agadir. Maghreb Fès won 2-1 away from home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing at home against CR Khemis Zemamra (Botola Pro), Maghreb Fès finished 2-1 on 27 September. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 12 September: Maghreb Fès drew 0-0 against Rahimo away from home in CAF Champions League, scoring zero goals and allowing zero. Against Rahimo in CAF Champions League, Maghreb Fès scored four and conceded one on 6 September; the at home result was 4-1. Maghreb Fès's at home game on 5 July (Botola Pro) ended 2-0 against Olympique Dcheïra, with two goals for and zero against.
Raja Casablanca: three wins, one draw and one defeat over five games; seven goals scored, three conceded, keeping three clean sheets. CR Khemis Zemamra were their latest opponents, at home on 3 October: a 1-0 win.
Playing at home against CR Khemis Zemamra (Botola Pro), Raja Casablanca finished 1-0 on 3 October. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 5 July: Raja Casablanca won 2-0 against Olympique Safi away from home in Botola Pro, scoring two goals and allowing zero. Against Hassania Agadir in Botola Pro, Raja Casablanca scored two and conceded zero on 2 July; the at home result was 2-0. Raja Casablanca's away from home game on 28 June (Botola Pro) ended 1-1 against Ittihad Tanger, with one goal for and one against. On 25 June, Yacoub El Mansour faced Raja Casablanca in Botola Pro: Raja Casablanca lost 1-2 away from home, having scored one and conceded two.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-0 away win for Raja Casablanca on 6 May and a 1-1 draw at Raja Casablanca on 3 October 2025.
After the match
Maghreb Fès and Raja Casablanca could not be separated in a goalless draw on 8 October 2026. othmane chraibi (36') was sent off. Achraf Harmach (8'), Micheal Agbekpornu (27'), Bouchaib Arrassi (46'), Hamza allah ait (68') and Oussama nourdine (82') were booked. Maghreb Fès are unbeaten in the latest 9 matches of their recorded form in the 2025/26 Botola Pro, the 2026/27 Botola Pro and the 2026/27 CAF Champions League. Raja Casablanca are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form. Maghreb Fès: three yellow cards. Maghreb Fès made four changes. Raja Casablanca: two yellow cards and one red card. Raja Casablanca made five changes. A clean sheet for Maghreb Fès. A clean sheet for Raja Casablanca.