222 points is a wide separation: Simba rates 1729, 15 de Agosto 1507. That resolves to 74.9% / 18.0% / 7.1%.
Its rounded call is 2-0. A 56.9-point margin separates the top two outcomes. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 6-1 in CAF Champions League. A single result carries no predictive load. Expected goals come out at 2.32 to 0.78. Simba holds both halves of the profile — 1.34 against 1.01 for scoring, 0.57 against 1.17 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. 74.9% goes to Simba, the model's lean. 82.0% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The home side is rated higher. 15 de Agosto's side of that rests on 4 rated matches, so treat it as provisional. Scorelines above 8%: 5. No scoreline stands out; 2-0 only leads on 12.2%. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. The four component numbers read 1.34, 0.57, 1.01, 1.17. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +229 and +7. Most and least likely outcomes are 67.8 points apart. The two ratings differ by 222 points. Simba's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 83.9%.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Simba's previous five results comprised four wins and one draw. Their goal totals were 15 scored and 3 conceded, with no defeats. 15 de Agosto were their latest opponents, away on 21 October: a 6-1 win.
On 21 October, 15 de Agosto faced Simba in CAF Champions League: Simba won 6-1 away from home, having scored six and conceded one. CAF Champions League, 13 September brought a home meeting with Be Forward Wanderers; Simba won 6-1, a return of six goals scored and one conceded. Simba visited Be Forward Wanderers on 6 September (CAF Champions League) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Stade Malien Bamako travelled to face Simba (CAF Champions League) on 14 February. For Simba, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 1-1 was Simba's result against Petro de Luanda on 7 February (CAF Champions League), playing away from home; Simba drew, with one scored to one conceded.
six goals for and six against accompanied 15 de Agosto's two wins and one defeat across three outings. On 21 October, 15 de Agosto recorded a 6-1 defeat hosting Simba; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Fomboni Club on 11 September.
21 October: 15 de Agosto lost 1-6 against Simba at home in CAF Champions League, scoring one goal and allowing six. Against Fomboni Club in CAF Champions League, 15 de Agosto scored one and conceded zero on 3 October; the away from home result was 1-0. 15 de Agosto's at home game on 11 September (CAF Champions League) ended 4-0 against Fomboni Club, with four goals for and zero against.
Earlier results between these sides included a 6-1 away win for Simba on 21 October.
After the match
Simba comfortably beat 15 de Agosto 3-0 on 25 October 2026. 74.9% is Simba's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Simba's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins.