The caveat comes first here. 15 de Agosto has only 3 rated matches behind their number, so while the model returns 1518 against 1718 and a 19.9% / 23.3% / 56.9% split, that precision is not earned yet.
Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +18 and +218. The match finished 1-6. Elo expected shares: 31.5% and 68.5%. In absolute terms: 15 de Agosto 1.07/1.10, Simba 1.28/0.61 on attack and defence. No scoreline stands out; 0-1 only leads on 10.8%. There is no trade-off to weigh: Simba scores at the higher rate (1.28 to 1.07) and concedes at the lower (0.61 to 1.10). Expected goals 0.97-1.90. Scorelines above 8%: 4. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 200 points. Point estimate: 0-1. A 33.6-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Only 3 rated matches back the 15 de Agosto figure. The model gives 76.8% to someone winning. Most and least likely outcomes are 37.0 points apart. 56.9% goes to Simba, the model's lean. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
15 de Agosto's previous two results comprised two wins. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 0 conceded, with no defeats. Latest: a 1-0 win away to Fomboni Club on 3 October; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Fomboni Club on 11 September.
Against Fomboni Club in CAF Champions League, 15 de Agosto scored one and conceded zero on 3 October; the away from home result was 1-0. 15 de Agosto's at home game on 11 September (CAF Champions League) ended 4-0 against Fomboni Club, with four goals for and zero against.
Simba were unbeaten in their last five games, with three wins and two draws, scoring 11 goals and conceding four. On 13 September, Simba recorded a 6-1 win hosting Be Forward Wanderers.
The 13 September fixture (CAF Champions League) paired Simba with Be Forward Wanderers. Simba won 6-1 at home, netting six goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Be Forward Wanderers (CAF Champions League), Simba finished 1-0 on 6 September. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 14 February: Simba won 1-0 against Stade Malien Bamako at home in CAF Champions League, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Petro de Luanda in CAF Champions League, Simba scored one and conceded one on 7 February; the away from home result was 1-1. Simba's at home game on 1 February (CAF Champions League) ended 2-2 against ES Tunis, with two goals for and two against.
After the match
Simba overwhelmed 15 de Agosto 6-1 on 21 October 2026. N. Chilambo opened the scoring in the 43rd minute for Simba to make it 1-0. E. Mpanzu added to the tally 56 minutes into the game for Simba to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Simba extended the lead through I. Doumbia 65 minutes into the game to make it 3-0. K. Makgalwa scored the 4th goal for Simba 72 minutes into the game as they extended the lead to make it 4-0. Simba extended the lead late on, in the 82nd minute; the match's 5th goal came through A. A. Oura to make it 5-0. The 6th goal came late on, in the 88th minute from I. Doumbia for Simba, who extended the lead to make it 6-0. 15 de Agosto got one back in the 91st minute for 15 de Agosto to make it 1-6. (28'), (49'), (74') and (85') were booked. 3 gols came after the 80th minute. Simba: 56.9% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. On current ratings the model puts Simba at around 1.9 gols in this pairing; they scored 6 here. Simba's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins. two yellow cards went to 15 de Agosto. Simba picked up two yellow cards.