Match

Al Wihdat rates 1729 to Al Arabi's 1472 — 257 points. Split: 78.0% / 16.7% / 5.2%.

1-0 is the single most probable result at 20.8%, clear of 2-0 on 16.1%. Attack/defence pairs: 1.04/0.42 and 0.80/1.00. 78.0% goes to Al Wihdat, the model's lean. Versus the 1500 seed: +229 and -28. On expected goals the model has it 1.55 against 0.46. Final score: 0-1. Spread across the three results is 72.8 points. Higher rating: the home side. Someone wins 83.2% of the time by this model. The gap between first and second outcome is 61.3 points, Al Wihdat ahead of the draw. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 139 and 7 rated matches respectively. 257 points of rating separation. Point estimate: 1-0. Neither component contradicts the other: Al Wihdat leads 1.04-0.80 forward and 0.42-1.00 back. The higher rating expects 86.5% of the points, the lower 13.5%. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them.

From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.

Match Report

Before the match

Al Wihdat's previous five results comprised three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal totals were 3 scored and 1 conceded, keeping four clean sheets. Shabab Al Ordon were their latest opponents, away on 24 October: a 1-0 win.

1-0 was Al Wihdat's result against Shabab Al Ordon on 24 October (Jordanian Pro League), playing away from home; Al Wihdat won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 17 October fixture (Jordanian Pro League) paired Al Wihdat with Al Hussein. Al Wihdat won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Al Jazeera (Jordanian Pro League), Al Wihdat finished 1-0 on 9 October. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 18 September: Al Wihdat lost 0-1 against Al Ramtha at home in Jordanian Pro League, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Al Salt in Jordanian Pro League, Al Wihdat scored zero and conceded zero on 12 September; the away from home result was 0-0.

Al Arabi's previous five results comprised one win, one draw and three defeats. Their goal totals were 2 scored and 7 conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Latest: a 2-0 defeat at home to Al Buqa'a on 24 October.

Al Arabi hosted Al Buqa'a on 24 October (Jordanian Pro League) and lost 0-2; their goals totalled zero, compared with two conceded. Shabab Al Ordon travelled to face Al Arabi (Jordanian Pro League) on 15 October. For Al Arabi, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 1-4 was Al Arabi's result against Al Hussein on 9 October (Jordanian Pro League), playing away from home; Al Arabi lost, with one scored to four conceded. The 18 September fixture (Jordanian Pro League) paired Al Arabi with Al Jazeera. Al Arabi drew 0-0 at home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Al Ramtha (Jordanian Pro League), Al Arabi finished 0-1 on 12 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition.

After the match

Al Arabi edged past Al Wihdat 1-0 on 30 October 2026. M. Obeidat opened the scoring 56 minutes into the game for Al Arabi to make it 1-0. Our current Elo ratings make Al Wihdat clearly the stronger side, by 257 rating points over Al Arabi, even though it was Al Arabi who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Al Arabi only a 5.2% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. A clean sheet for Al Arabi.