Across 11 recorded meetings back to 2021 the split is 2-1-8 from Shabab Al Ordon's side on wins, 7-23 on goals. The last was 2026, 0-3 in Jordanian Pro League. Currently 1433 against 1729 — a 11.0% / 19.9% / 69.1% split.
With 121 and 139 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. A 49.2-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The tie closed out 0-1. The model's preferred outcome is Al Wihdat at 69.1%. Al Wihdat holds both halves of the profile — 1.04 against 0.66 for scoring, 0.42 against 1.04 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. In absolute terms: Shabab Al Ordon 0.66/1.04, Al Wihdat 1.04/0.42 on attack and defence. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 20.9% to 79.1%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -67 and +229. Win-or-lose totals 80.1%; the draw takes the rest. Goal expectation splits 0.42 to 1.46. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. The distribution runs from 69.1% down to 11.0%. Of the individual scorelines, 0-1 carries the most weight at 22.3% — 0-2 is next at 16.3%.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
five goals for and nine against accompanied Shabab Al Ordon's three draws and two defeats across five outings, a winless run. A 1-0 defeat away to Al Arabi (15 October) was their most recent result.
Shabab Al Ordon's away from home game on 15 October (Jordanian Pro League) ended 0-1 against Al Arabi, with zero goals for and one against. On 8 October, Al Buqa'a faced Shabab Al Ordon in Jordanian Pro League: Shabab Al Ordon lost 0-3 at home, having scored zero and conceded three. Jordanian Pro League, 19 September brought a home meeting with Al Hussein; Shabab Al Ordon drew 3-3, a return of three goals scored and three conceded. Shabab Al Ordon visited Al Jazeera on 10 September (Jordanian Pro League) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Al Ramtha travelled to face Shabab Al Ordon (Jordanian Pro League) on 4 September. For Shabab Al Ordon, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed.
Al Wihdat came into the game with two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring two goals and conceding one, keeping four clean sheets. On 17 October, Al Wihdat recorded a 1-0 win hosting Al Hussein.
Al Wihdat's at home game on 17 October (Jordanian Pro League) ended 1-0 against Al Hussein, with one goal for and zero against. On 9 October, Al Jazeera faced Al Wihdat in Jordanian Pro League: Al Wihdat won 1-0 away from home, having scored one and conceded zero. Jordanian Pro League, 18 September brought a home meeting with Al Ramtha; Al Wihdat lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded. Al Wihdat visited Al Salt on 12 September (Jordanian Pro League) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. Al Faisaly travelled to face Al Wihdat (Jordanian Pro League) on 4 September. For Al Wihdat, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 3-0 home win for Al Wihdat on 14 April and a 1-0 home win for Shabab Al Ordon on 29 January.
After the match
Al Wihdat edged past Shabab Al Ordon 1-0 on 24 October 2026. B. Diop opened the scoring late on, in the 87th minute for Al Wihdat to make it 1-0. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Al Wihdat 296 points stronger than Shabab Al Ordon. Al Wihdat won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 69.1%. Al Wihdat conceded no goals.