One half each — Al Buqa'a in front on 0.92, Al Arabi behind on 1.00. On rating it is 1472 against 1447, which the model resolves to 50.3% / 24.8% / 24.9%.
Al Arabi's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 62.7%. A 25-point spread sits between the two figures. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 11.2%. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -28 and -53. The model's preferred outcome is Al Arabi at 50.3%. The home side is rated higher. A 25.5-point range top to bottom. 75.2% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.69 and 1.25. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Scorelines above 8%: 3. The four component numbers read 0.80, 1.00, 0.92, 1.42. Al Arabi sits 25.4 points above the next most likely result. Neither figure is thin: 7 and 56 matches respectively sit behind them. Rounded, that is 1-1. Result on the day: 0-2.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Al Arabi came into the game with one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring three goals and conceding eight. A 1-0 win at home to Shabab Al Ordon (15 October) was their most recent result.
Shabab Al Ordon travelled to face Al Arabi (Jordanian Pro League) on 15 October. For Al Arabi, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 1-4 was Al Arabi's result against Al Hussein on 9 October (Jordanian Pro League), playing away from home; Al Arabi lost, with one scored to four conceded. The 18 September fixture (Jordanian Pro League) paired Al Arabi with Al Jazeera. Al Arabi drew 0-0 at home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Al Ramtha (Jordanian Pro League), Al Arabi finished 0-1 on 12 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 5 September: Al Arabi lost 1-3 against Al Salt at home in Jordanian Pro League, scoring one goal and allowing three.
Al Buqa'a's previous five results comprised two wins, two draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 4 conceded, keeping four clean sheets. Al Salt were their latest opponents, at home on 16 October: a 0-0 draw; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 away to Shabab Al Ordon on 8 October.
Al Buqa'a hosted Al Salt on 16 October (Jordanian Pro League) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. Shabab Al Ordon hosted Al Buqa'a (Jordanian Pro League) on 8 October. For Al Buqa'a, the score was 3-0: three goals scored, zero allowed. 0-4 was Al Buqa'a's result against Al Faisaly on 20 September (Jordanian Pro League), playing at home; Al Buqa'a lost, with zero scored to four conceded. The 11 September fixture (Jordanian Pro League) paired Al Buqa'a with Al Hussein. Al Buqa'a drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Doqarah (Jordanian Pro League), Al Buqa'a finished 1-0 on 3 September. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition.
After the match
Al Buqa'a beat Al Arabi 2-0 on 24 October 2026. M. Al Eikish opened the scoring from the penalty spot 65 minutes into the game for Al Buqa'a to make it 1-0. A. Jarwan added to the tally 69 minutes into the game for Al Buqa'a, set up by Z. A. Raya, to make it 2-0. Our current Elo ratings make Al Arabi slightly the stronger side, by 25 rating points over Al Buqa'a, even though it was Al Buqa'a who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Al Buqa'a only a 24.9% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. Al Buqa'a conceded no goals.