Prior record: 0-1-8 across 9 since 2021. Most recent 2026, 0-3 in Jordanian Pro League. Against that, current ratings read 1545 and 1775, a 230-point margin, and the model splits the tie 16.9% / 22.3% / 60.9%.
On the Elo curve, expected shares run 27.9% to 72.1%. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Al Faisaly leads the distribution by 38.6 points over the draw. Al Faisaly holds both halves of the profile — 1.41 against 1.07 for scoring, 0.57 against 1.08 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. In absolute terms: Al Jazeera 1.07/1.08, Al Faisaly 1.41/0.57 on attack and defence. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 0-2 on 10.9%. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +45 and +275. A 44.0-point range top to bottom. With 99 and 129 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Most likely single result is Al Faisaly on 60.9%. Point estimate: 0-2. Expected goals sit at 0.90 against 2.05. Result on the day: 2-2. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Distance between the ratings: 230 points, wide on this scale.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Al Jazeera's previous five results comprised two wins, two draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 11 scored and 3 conceded. Doqarah were their latest opponents, away on 16 October: a 5-1 win; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 away to Al Hussein on 5 September.
Playing away from home against Doqarah (Jordanian Pro League), Al Jazeera finished 5-1 on 16 October. Their score comprised five goals, against one from the opposition. 9 October: Al Jazeera lost 0-1 against Al Wihdat at home in Jordanian Pro League, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Al Arabi in Jordanian Pro League, Al Jazeera scored zero and conceded zero on 18 September; the away from home result was 0-0. Al Jazeera's at home game on 10 September (Jordanian Pro League) ended 1-1 against Shabab Al Ordon, with one goal for and one against. On 5 September, Al Hussein faced Al Jazeera in Jordanian Pro League: Al Jazeera won 5-0 away from home, having scored five and conceded zero.
Al Faisaly: four wins and one draw over five games; 11 goals scored, one conceded, keeping four clean sheets, unbeaten. Latest: a 4-1 win at home to Al Ramtha on 17 October; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 away to Al Buqa'a on 20 September.
Against Al Ramtha in Jordanian Pro League, Al Faisaly scored four and conceded one on 17 October; the at home result was 4-1. Al Faisaly's away from home game on 10 October (Jordanian Pro League) ended 1-0 against Al Salt, with one goal for and zero against. On 20 September, Al Buqa'a faced Al Faisaly in Jordanian Pro League: Al Faisaly won 4-0 away from home, having scored four and conceded zero. Jordanian Pro League, 11 September brought a home meeting with Doqarah; Al Faisaly won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Al Faisaly visited Al Wihdat on 4 September (Jordanian Pro League) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded.
Previous meetings in our records: a 3-0 home win for Al Faisaly on 8 April and a 6-1 away win for Al Faisaly on 31 October 2025.
After the match
Al Jazeera and Al Faisaly drew 2-2 on 23 October 2026. Y. Bakheet opened the scoring inside the first minute for Al Jazeera, set up by Y. Al Bakhit, to make it 1-0. A. Ersan levelled it inside the first 7 minutes for Al Faisaly, set up by Claudio Maradona, to make it 1-1. A. Ersan put Al Faisaly in front in the 29th minute, set up by Claudio Maradona, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Al Jazeera drew level through Y. Bakhit in the 35th minute, set up by R. Shawahna, to make it 2-2. All the scoring was done by half time. Al Faisaly are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form. Across the goals, the lead switched one time.