A 244-point rating chasm sits between these two, producing a 77.0% / 17.2% / 5.9% distribution.
The two ratings differ by 244 points. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +218 and -26. The higher rating expects 85.6% of the points, the lower 14.4%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-0 on 12.0%. The underlying goal expectation is 2.36 for Al Hussein, 0.78 for Doqarah. The distribution runs from 77.0% down to 5.9%. The match finished 1-0. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Both components point the same way, toward Al Hussein: 1.52 to 0.81 going forward, 0.72 to 1.04 going back. Someone wins 82.9% of the time by this model. 77.0% goes to Al Hussein, the model's lean. The four component numbers read 1.52, 0.72, 0.81, 1.04. The leading outcome clears the second by 59.8 points. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Higher rating: the home side. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-0. Doqarah's side of that rests on 6 rated matches, so treat it as provisional.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
seven goals for and ten against accompanied Al Hussein's one win, two draws and two defeats across five outings, failing to score in three of those games. A 1-0 defeat away to Al Wihdat (17 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Al Arabi on 9 October.
Al Hussein's away from home game on 17 October (Jordanian Pro League) ended 0-1 against Al Wihdat, with zero goals for and one against. On 9 October, Al Arabi faced Al Hussein in Jordanian Pro League: Al Hussein won 4-1 at home, having scored four and conceded one. Jordanian Pro League, 19 September brought an away meeting with Shabab Al Ordon; Al Hussein drew 3-3, a return of three goals scored and three conceded. Al Hussein hosted Al Buqa'a on 11 September (Jordanian Pro League) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. Al Jazeera travelled to face Al Hussein (Jordanian Pro League) on 5 September. For Al Hussein, the score was 0-5: zero goals scored, five allowed.
Doqarah's previous five results comprised one win, one draw and three defeats. Their goal totals were 3 scored and 8 conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Latest: a 5-1 defeat at home to Al Jazeera on 16 October.
1-5 was Doqarah's result against Al Jazeera on 16 October (Jordanian Pro League), playing at home; Doqarah lost, with one scored to five conceded. The 10 October fixture (Jordanian Pro League) paired Doqarah with Al Ramtha. Doqarah drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Al Salt (Jordanian Pro League), Doqarah finished 2-0 on 17 September. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition. 11 September: Doqarah lost 0-2 against Al Faisaly away from home in Jordanian Pro League, scoring zero goals and allowing two. Against Al Buqa'a in Jordanian Pro League, Doqarah scored zero and conceded one on 3 September; the away from home result was 0-1.
After the match
Al Hussein edged past Doqarah 1-0 on 22 October 2026. O. Al Namarneh opened the scoring late on, in the 87th minute for Al Hussein, set up by M. Rayhi, to make it 1-0. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Al Hussein 244 points stronger than Doqarah. 77% is Al Hussein's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Al Hussein finished with a clean sheet.