Across 5 recorded meetings back to 2021 the split is 1-0-4 from Al Buqa'a's side on wins, 5-12 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-3 in Jordanian Pro League. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1427 and 1528 — 101 points — for a 31.5% / 26.8% / 41.7% split.
Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -73 and +28. The away side is rated higher. Al Salt sits 10.2 points above the next most likely result. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Played and finished 0-0. Expected shares 44.8% against 55.2% on Elo. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 12.1%. 73.2% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Between best and worst outcome there is 14.9 points of daylight. The rating gap itself is 101 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Neither figure is thin: 54 and 120 matches respectively sit behind them. Al Salt carries the largest share, 41.7%. One half each — Al Buqa'a in front on 0.90, Al Salt behind on 0.85. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Al Buqa'a: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; six goals scored, nine conceded, keeping three clean sheets. Latest: a 3-0 win away to Shabab Al Ordon on 8 October.
3-0 was Al Buqa'a's result against Shabab Al Ordon on 8 October (Jordanian Pro League), playing away from home; Al Buqa'a won, with three scored to zero conceded. The 20 September fixture (Jordanian Pro League) paired Al Buqa'a with Al Faisaly. Al Buqa'a lost 0-4 at home, netting zero goals while conceding four. Playing away from home against Al Hussein (Jordanian Pro League), Al Buqa'a finished 0-0 on 11 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 3 September: Al Buqa'a won 1-0 against Doqarah at home in Jordanian Pro League, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Al Ramtha in Jordanian Pro League, Al Buqa'a scored two and conceded five on 7 May; the away from home result was 2-5.
four goals for and five against accompanied Al Salt's one win, two draws and two defeats across five outings, failing to score in three of those games. A 1-0 defeat at home to Al Faisaly (10 October) was their most recent result.
Al Salt's at home game on 10 October (Jordanian Pro League) ended 0-1 against Al Faisaly, with zero goals for and one against. On 17 September, Doqarah faced Al Salt in Jordanian Pro League: Al Salt lost 0-2 away from home, having scored zero and conceded two. Jordanian Pro League, 12 September brought a home meeting with Al Wihdat; Al Salt drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Al Salt visited Al Arabi on 5 September (Jordanian Pro League) and won 3-1; their goals totalled three, compared with one conceded. Al Jazeera hosted Al Salt (Jordanian Pro League) on 7 May. For Al Salt, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 3-1 away win for Al Salt on 26 April and a 3-1 away win for Al Buqa'a on 4 February.
After the match
Al Buqa'a and Al Salt could not be separated in a goalless draw on 16 October 2026. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Al Salt 101 points stronger than Al Buqa'a.