No separation at all — 36.6% / 27.9% / 35.5% across the three results.
The four component numbers read 0.86, 1.06, 1.05, 1.05. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Top of the distribution: Doqarah, 36.6%. The match finished 1-5. Only 1.1 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.7% leads, but only just. Higher rating: the away side. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -22 and +39. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. By expected share of the points: 50.6% and 49.4%. Neither component contradicts the other: Al Jazeera leads 1.05-0.86 forward and 1.05-1.06 back. The three outcomes sit within 8.7 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. Someone wins 72.1% of the time by this model. Worth noting the base: only 5 rated matches sit behind Doqarah's number. The rating gap itself is 61 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. Expected goals 1.34-1.51.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Doqarah's previous four results comprised one win, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 2 scored and 3 conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Latest: a 0-0 draw away to Al Ramtha on 10 October.
0-0 was Doqarah's result against Al Ramtha on 10 October (Jordanian Pro League), playing away from home; Doqarah drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 17 September fixture (Jordanian Pro League) paired Doqarah with Al Salt. Doqarah won 2-0 at home, netting two goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Al Faisaly (Jordanian Pro League), Doqarah finished 0-2 on 11 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition. 3 September: Doqarah lost 0-1 against Al Buqa'a away from home in Jordanian Pro League, scoring zero goals and allowing one.
Al Jazeera: one win, three draws and one defeat over five games; seven goals scored, three conceded. Latest: a 1-0 defeat at home to Al Wihdat on 9 October; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 away to Al Hussein on 5 September.
0-1 was Al Jazeera's result against Al Wihdat on 9 October (Jordanian Pro League), playing at home; Al Jazeera lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 18 September fixture (Jordanian Pro League) paired Al Jazeera with Al Arabi. Al Jazeera drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Shabab Al Ordon (Jordanian Pro League), Al Jazeera finished 1-1 on 10 September. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 5 September: Al Jazeera won 5-0 against Al Hussein away from home in Jordanian Pro League, scoring five goals and allowing zero. Against Al Salt in Jordanian Pro League, Al Jazeera scored one and conceded one on 7 May; the at home result was 1-1.
After the match
Al Jazeera overwhelmed Doqarah 5-1 on 16 October 2026. O. Al Khateib opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for Doqarah, set up by H. Al Saifi, to make it 1-0. Y. Al Bakhit levelled it in the 21st minute for Al Jazeera, set up by A. Sanad, to make it 1-1. R. Abu Khizaran put Al Jazeera in front in the 33rd minute to make it 2-1. Y. Al Bakhit added to the tally 58 minutes into the game for Al Jazeera to make it 3-1. With the 5th goal, Al Jazeera extended the lead through Y. Bakheet late on, in the 83rd minute to make it 4-1. Y. Al Bakhit scored the 6th goal for Al Jazeera from the penalty spot late on, in the 87th minute as they extended the lead to make it 5-1. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Al Jazeera are 61 points stronger than Doqarah. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. On current ratings the model puts Al Jazeera at around 1.51 gols in this pairing; they scored 5 here. one change of leader occurred in the scoring sequence. Al Jazeera won after falling behind.