Al Arabi is ahead on each half — 0.85 to 0.71 in attack, 1.04 to 1.06 in defence. On rating it is 1475 against 1438, which the model resolves to 52.0% / 24.4% / 23.5%.
These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. The tie closed out 1-0. The four component numbers read 0.85, 1.04, 0.71, 1.06. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-0. Al Arabi's number leans on a 5-match sample. The higher rating belongs to the home side. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 37 points. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-0 at 13.0%. By expected share of the points: 64.3% and 35.7%. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Someone wins 75.5% of the time by this model. Al Arabi holds a 27.6-point edge on the next outcome. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -25 and -62. The model's preferred outcome is Al Arabi at 52.0%. On expected goals the model has it 1.34 against 0.99. Most and least likely outcomes are 28.5 points apart.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Al Arabi arrived without a win in their last four outings, recording one draw and three defeats, scoring two goals and conceding eight. A 4-1 defeat away to Al Hussein (9 October) was their most recent result.
Jordanian Pro League, 9 October brought an away meeting with Al Hussein; Al Arabi lost 1-4, a return of one goal scored and four conceded. Al Arabi hosted Al Jazeera on 18 September (Jordanian Pro League) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. Al Ramtha hosted Al Arabi (Jordanian Pro League) on 12 September. For Al Arabi, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 1-3 was Al Arabi's result against Al Salt on 5 September (Jordanian Pro League), playing at home; Al Arabi lost, with one scored to three conceded.
Shabab Al Ordon came into the game with one win, three draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding eight. On 8 October, Shabab Al Ordon recorded a 3-0 defeat hosting Al Buqa'a.
Shabab Al Ordon's at home game on 8 October (Jordanian Pro League) ended 0-3 against Al Buqa'a, with zero goals for and three against. On 19 September, Al Hussein faced Shabab Al Ordon in Jordanian Pro League: Shabab Al Ordon drew 3-3 at home, having scored three and conceded three. Jordanian Pro League, 10 September brought an away meeting with Al Jazeera; Shabab Al Ordon drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Shabab Al Ordon hosted Al Ramtha on 4 September (Jordanian Pro League) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Sama Al Sarhan travelled to face Shabab Al Ordon (Jordanian Pro League) on 8 May. For Shabab Al Ordon, the score was 2-0: two goals scored, zero allowed.
After the match
Al Arabi edged past Shabab Al Ordon 1-0 on 15 October 2026. M. Obeidat opened the scoring late on, in the 89th minute for Al Arabi to make it 1-0. Al Arabi conceded no goals.