The rating gap is 376 points here, and the split follows at 85.2% / 13.8% / 1.0%.
Attack/defence pairs: 1.65/0.49 and 0.94/1.00. The tie closed out 4-0. A 376-point spread sits between the two figures. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +413 and +37. The three results cover 84.2 points. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 1-0 in CAF Champions League. A single result carries no predictive load. EL Merriekh Bentiu: only 4 rated matches. Most likely single result is Pyramids FC on 85.2%. Both components point the same way, toward Pyramids FC: 1.65 to 0.94 going forward, 0.49 to 1.00 going back. Its rounded call is 2-0. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Expected shares 92.7% against 7.3% on Elo. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Higher rating: the home side. Win-or-lose totals 86.2%; the draw takes the rest. The model's expected-goals figures are 2.45 and 0.61. A 71.4-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-0 at 14.0%.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
16 goals for and four against accompanied Pyramids FC's five wins across five outings, an unbeaten run. A 4-1 win away to El Geish (20 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 at home to GOR Mahia on 13 September.
Pyramids FC's away from home game on 20 October (Egyptian Premier League) ended 4-1 against El Geish, with four goals for and one against. On 16 October, EL Merriekh Bentiu faced Pyramids FC in CAF Champions League: Pyramids FC won 1-0 away from home, having scored one and conceded zero. Egyptian Premier League, 12 October brought a home meeting with Ceramica Cleopatra; Pyramids FC won 4-1, a return of four goals scored and one conceded. Pyramids FC visited Enppi on 17 September (Egyptian Premier League) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. GOR Mahia travelled to face Pyramids FC (CAF Champions League) on 13 September. For Pyramids FC, the score was 5-1: five goals scored, one allowed.
four goals for and one against accompanied EL Merriekh Bentiu's two wins and one defeat across three outings. On 16 October, EL Merriekh Bentiu recorded a 1-0 defeat hosting Pyramids FC; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 away to Heegan on 12 September.
EL Merriekh Bentiu's at home game on 16 October (CAF Champions League) ended 0-1 against Pyramids FC, with zero goals for and one against. On 12 September, Heegan faced EL Merriekh Bentiu in CAF Champions League: EL Merriekh Bentiu won 3-0 away from home, having scored three and conceded zero. CAF Champions League, 5 September brought a home meeting with Heegan; EL Merriekh Bentiu won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded.
Previous meetings in our records: a 1-0 away win for Pyramids FC on 16 October.
After the match
Pyramids FC overwhelmed EL Merriekh Bentiu 4-0 on 24 October 2026. A. Magdi opened the scoring in the 23rd minute for Pyramids FC to make it 1-0. A. Magdi added to the tally in the 28th minute for Pyramids FC to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Pyramids FC extended the lead through M. Fathi 47 minutes into the game to make it 3-0. N. Benbouali scored the 4th goal for Pyramids FC 71 minutes into the game as they extended the lead to make it 4-0. Pyramids FC's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 85.2% for a win in this pairing. Pyramids FC's current recorded form ends with 10 consecutive wins in the 2026/27 Egyptian Premier League and the 2026/27 CAF Champions League. Pyramids FC finished with a clean sheet.