The ratings are far apart — 1773 against 1567, 206 points — and the model turns that into 73.3% / 18.5% / 8.2%.
Scorelines above 8%: 5. Someone wins 81.5% of the time by this model. Versus the 1500 seed: +273 and +67. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Elo expected shares: 82.6% and 17.4%. A 65.1-point range top to bottom. Its rounded call is 1-0. ES Tunis holds a 54.8-point edge on the next outcome. Worth noting the base: only 4 rated matches sit behind Asswehly's number. The model's preferred outcome is ES Tunis at 73.3%. The match finished 1-0. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 206 points. The four component numbers read 0.93, 0.51, 0.98, 0.82. Expected goals come out at 1.14 to 0.67. Asswehly has the better scoring rate (0.98) and ES Tunis the better defensive one (0.51). They have met once on record — 2026, 0-1 in CAF Champions League, which is too little history to weigh. 1-0 is the single most probable result at 18.6%, clear of 0-0 on 16.3%.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
ES Tunis's previous five results comprised three wins and two defeats. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 6 conceded. Latest: a 1-0 defeat away to Asswehly on 18 October.
Against Asswehly in CAF Champions League, ES Tunis scored zero and conceded one on 18 October; the away from home result was 0-1. ES Tunis's at home game on 10 October (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) ended 3-1 against Olympique Béja, with three goals for and one against. On 13 September, CS Hammam-Lif faced ES Tunis in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1: ES Tunis won 1-0 away from home, having scored one and conceded zero. Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, 6 September brought a home meeting with AS Marsa; ES Tunis won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded. ES Tunis visited Jeunesse Sportive Omrane on 30 August (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) and lost 1-3; their goals totalled one, compared with three conceded.
Asswehly were unbeaten in their last three games, with three wins, scoring five goals and conceding zero, keeping three clean sheets. A 1-0 win at home to ES Tunis (18 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 away to KVZ on 13 September.
CAF Champions League, 18 October brought a home meeting with ES Tunis; Asswehly won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. Asswehly visited KVZ on 13 September (CAF Champions League) and won 3-0; their goals totalled three, compared with zero conceded. KVZ travelled to face Asswehly (CAF Champions League) on 4 September. For Asswehly, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-0 home win for Asswehly on 18 October.
After the match
ES Tunis edged past Asswehly 1-0 on 24 October 2026. The tie went to penalties, where ES Tunis won the shootout 3-1. I. Faraj opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for ES Tunis to make it 1-0. 73.3% is ES Tunis's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. ES Tunis won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win. ES Tunis conceded no goals.