Both components point the same way, toward Colombe: 0.80 to 0.61 going forward, 0.64 to 0.83 going back. On rating it is 1595 against 1494, which the model resolves to 61.2% / 22.2% / 16.6%.
The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. The rating gap itself is 101 points, which is wide by the model's standards. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 2-0 in CAF Champions League; not enough to lean on. Played and finished 1-0. Most and least likely outcomes are 44.6 points apart. Colombe carries the largest share, 61.2%. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Higher rating: the home side. As a single number the model says 0-0. The xG line reads 0.99 to 0.53. Elo expected shares: 72.2% and 27.8%. The four component numbers read 0.80, 0.64, 0.61, 0.83. A 39.0-point margin separates the top two outcomes. 0-0 is the single most probable result at 21.8%, clear of 1-0 on 21.6%. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +95 and -6. A decisive result carries 77.8% against 22.2% for the draw. Neither figure is thin: 8 and 16 matches respectively sit behind them.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Colombe were unbeaten in their last five games, with one win and four draws, scoring three goals and conceding one, keeping four clean sheets. On 18 October, Colombe recorded a 2-0 win visiting Teungueth.
Colombe's away from home game on 18 October (CAF Champions League) ended 2-0 against Teungueth, with two goals for and zero against. On 13 September, Stade Malien Bamako faced Colombe in CAF Champions League: Colombe drew 0-0 away from home, having scored zero and conceded zero. CAF Champions League, 6 September brought a home meeting with Stade Malien Bamako; Colombe drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Colombe visited MC Alger on 26 October 2025 (CAF Champions League) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. MC Alger travelled to face Colombe (CAF Champions League) on 19 October 2025. For Colombe, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed.
Teungueth: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; three goals scored, four conceded. Latest: a 2-0 defeat at home to Colombe on 18 October.
Teungueth hosted Colombe on 18 October (CAF Champions League) and lost 0-2; their goals totalled zero, compared with two conceded. Canchungo travelled to face Teungueth (CAF Champions League) on 13 September. For Teungueth, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 1-0 was Teungueth's result against Canchungo on 5 September (CAF Champions League), playing away from home; Teungueth won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 24 August 2024 fixture (CAF Champions League) paired Teungueth with Stade d'Abidjan. Teungueth drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing away from home against Stade d'Abidjan (CAF Champions League), Teungueth finished 0-1 on 17 August 2024. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-0 away win for Colombe on 18 October.
After the match
Colombe edged past Teungueth 1-0 on 25 October 2026. Colombe opened the scoring inside the first minute for Colombe to make it 1-0. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Colombe 101 points stronger than Teungueth. Colombe won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 61.2%. Colombe are unbeaten in the latest 8 matches of their recorded form. Colombe finished with a clean sheet.