1645 against 1716 gives the model nothing to work with: 35.1% / 27.8% / 37.1%.
Result on the day: 1-2. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +145 and +216. A 2.0-point gap between the top two is inside the noise. The distribution peaks at 0-0, 26.1%, with 0-1 behind it at 18.8%. A 9.3-point range covers every outcome here. The model gives 72.2% to someone winning. Behind them are 26 and 189 rated matches. On expected goals the model has it 0.62 against 0.72. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 1-1 in CAF Champions League; not enough to lean on. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Both components point the same way, toward Maghreb Fès: 0.93 to 0.78 going forward, 0.54 to 0.58 going back. The two ratings differ by 71 points. Most likely single result is Maghreb Fès on 37.1%. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Elo expected shares: 49.1% and 50.9%. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 0-0. Attack/defence pairs: 0.78/0.58 and 0.93/0.54.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
five goals for and four against accompanied ASEC Mimosas's two wins, two draws and one defeat across five outings. A 1-1 draw away to Maghreb Fès (18 October) was their most recent result.
18 October: ASEC Mimosas drew 1-1 against Maghreb Fès away from home in CAF Champions League, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against ASC Kara in CAF Champions League, ASEC Mimosas scored two and conceded one on 13 September; the at home result was 2-1. ASEC Mimosas's away from home game on 6 September (CAF Champions League) ended 1-1 against ASC Kara, with one goal for and one against. On 28 September 2025, Power Dynamos faced ASEC Mimosas in CAF Champions League: ASEC Mimosas won 1-0 at home, having scored one and conceded zero. CAF Champions League, 20 September 2025 brought an away meeting with Power Dynamos; ASEC Mimosas lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded.
Maghreb Fès: two wins, two draws and one defeat over five games; six goals scored, five conceded. Latest: a 1-1 draw at home to ASEC Mimosas on 18 October.
Maghreb Fès hosted ASEC Mimosas on 18 October (CAF Champions League) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Ittihad Tanger hosted Maghreb Fès (Botola Pro) on 14 October. For Maghreb Fès, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 0-0 was Maghreb Fès's result against Raja Casablanca on 8 October (Botola Pro), playing at home; Maghreb Fès drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 3 October fixture (Botola Pro) paired Maghreb Fès with Hassania Agadir. Maghreb Fès won 2-1 away from home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing at home against CR Khemis Zemamra (Botola Pro), Maghreb Fès finished 2-1 on 27 September. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition.
Previous meetings in our records: a 1-1 draw at Maghreb Fès on 18 October.
After the match
Maghreb Fès edged past ASEC Mimosas 2-1 on 25 October 2026. Maghreb Fès opened the scoring 62 minutes into the game for Maghreb Fès to make it 1-0. ASEC Mimosas levelled it 73 minutes into the game for ASEC Mimosas to make it 1-1. Maghreb Fès regained the lead through Maghreb Fès in the 97th minute to make it 2-1. Every goal came after the interval. Maghreb Fès won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.