The model declines to call this one. 1525 plays 1578, and the three-way split of 37.8% / 27.6% / 34.6% is about as close to undecided as its output gets.
With 42 and 38 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Elo expected shares: 51.7% and 48.3%. 72.4% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The away side is rated higher. 37.8% goes to Al Merreikh, the model's lean. The four component numbers read 0.58, 0.76, 0.72, 0.93. Goal expectation splits 0.80 to 0.73. The leading two outcomes sit 3.2 points apart, which is not a real preference. 53 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. Honours split: 0.72 forward for Horoya, 0.76 back for Al Merreikh. As a single number the model says 0-0. Most weight falls on 0-0 at 21.6%. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 0-1 in CAF Champions League. A single result carries no predictive load. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +25 and +78. The tie closed out 1-0. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Al Merreikh came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring two goals and conceding two, keeping three clean sheets. On 18 October, Al Merreikh recorded a 1-0 defeat visiting Horoya.
CAF Champions League, 18 October brought an away meeting with Horoya; Al Merreikh lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded. Al Merreikh visited Power Dynamos on 12 September (CAF Champions League) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Power Dynamos travelled to face Al Merreikh (CAF Champions League) on 5 September. For Al Merreikh, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 0-0 was Al Merreikh's result against Saint Eloi Lupopo on 4 October 2025 (CAF Champions League), playing at home; Al Merreikh drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 27 September 2025 fixture (CAF Champions League) paired Al Merreikh with Saint Eloi Lupopo. Al Merreikh lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one.
Horoya's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 6 conceded. Al Merreikh were their latest opponents, at home on 18 October: a 1-0 win.
Horoya hosted Al Merreikh on 18 October (CAF Champions League) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. JS Saoura travelled to face Horoya (CAF Champions League) on 13 September. For Horoya, the score was 3-1: three goals scored, one allowed. 0-1 was Horoya's result against JS Saoura on 4 September (CAF Champions League), playing away from home; Horoya lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 25 October 2025 fixture (CAF Champions League) paired Horoya with FAR Rabat. Horoya lost 0-3 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding three. Playing at home against FAR Rabat (CAF Champions League), Horoya finished 1-1 on 19 October 2025. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition.
The last recorded meeting was a 1-0 home win for Horoya on 18 October.
After the match
Al Merreikh edged past Horoya 1-0 on 24 October 2026. The tie went to penalties, where Horoya won the shootout 5-3. Al Merreikh opened the scoring 70 minutes into the game for Al Merreikh to make it 1-0. Our current Elo ratings make Horoya slightly the stronger side, by 53 rating points over Al Merreikh, even though it was Al Merreikh who won this one. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0 to 0. Al Merreikh won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win. Al Merreikh conceded no goals.