The caveat comes first here. Sidama Bunna has only 3 rated matches behind their number, so while the model returns 1511 against 1739 and a 16.9% / 22.3% / 60.8% split, that precision is not earned yet.
A 3-match base for Sidama Bunna. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Outcomes span 43.9 points. Reduced to one result that is 0-1. Of the individual scorelines, 0-1 carries the most weight at 17.0% — 0-0 is next at 15.7%. First to second is a 38.5-point step, Al Hilal Omdurman over the draw. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. By expected share of the points: 28.1% and 71.9%. The split is one apiece: Sidama Bunna leads the attacking rate on 0.96, Al Hilal Omdurman the defensive on 0.54. The match finished 0-2. 228 points of rating separation. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +11 and +239. xG: 0.77 to 1.08. Win-or-lose totals 77.7%; the draw takes the rest. In absolute terms: Sidama Bunna 0.96/0.92, Al Hilal Omdurman 0.87/0.54 on attack and defence. 60.8% goes to Al Hilal Omdurman, the model's lean.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
Sidama Bunna: one win and one draw over two games; three goals scored, zero conceded, unbeaten. Latest: a 3-0 win at home to Aiglons on 13 September.
Playing at home against Aiglons (CAF Champions League), Sidama Bunna finished 3-0 on 13 September. Their score comprised three goals, against zero from the opposition. 5 September: Sidama Bunna drew 0-0 against Aiglons away from home in CAF Champions League, scoring zero goals and allowing zero.
Al Hilal Omdurman came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring five goals and conceding two, keeping three clean sheets. On 12 September, Al Hilal Omdurman recorded a 1-0 win hosting Aigle Noir.
12 September: Al Hilal Omdurman won 1-0 against Aigle Noir at home in CAF Champions League, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Aigle Noir in CAF Champions League, Al Hilal Omdurman scored two and conceded zero on 5 September; the away from home result was 2-0. Al Hilal Omdurman's at home game on 22 March (CAF Champions League) ended 0-1 against Renaissance Berkane, with zero goals for and one against. On 14 March, Renaissance Berkane faced Al Hilal Omdurman in CAF Champions League: Al Hilal Omdurman drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. CAF Champions League, 14 February brought a home meeting with Saint Eloi Lupopo; Al Hilal Omdurman won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded.
After the match
Al Hilal Omdurman beat Sidama Bunna 2-0 on 18 October 2026. Al Hilal Omdurman (an own goal) opened the scoring inside the first 11 minutes for Al Hilal Omdurman to make it 1-0. Al Hilal Omdurman added to the tally in the 94th minute for Al Hilal Omdurman to make it 2-0. Al Hilal Omdurman won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 60.8%. Al Hilal Omdurman conceded no goals.