A 51.7% / 24.5% / 23.8% split off ratings of 1698 and 1664. Neither side holds both halves — Maghreb Fès scores at 0.95, ASEC Mimosas concedes at 0.52.
Attack/defence pairs: 0.95/0.56 and 0.78/0.52. 34 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. Final score: 1-1. The home side is rated higher. The leading outcome clears the second by 27.2 points. The model's preferred outcome is Maghreb Fès at 51.7%. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. A decisive result carries 75.5% against 24.5% for the draw. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +198 and +164. Scorelines above 8%: 4. The Elo curve splits the expected points 63.9% to 36.1% here. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 187 and 25 matches. The distribution peaks at 0-0, 26.5%, with 1-0 behind it at 19.5%. The single-scoreline output is 0-0. Expected goals sit at 0.74 against 0.59. Between best and worst outcome there is 27.9 points of daylight.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Maghreb Fès came into the game with two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring five goals and conceding four. On 14 October, Maghreb Fès recorded a 2-1 defeat visiting Ittihad Tanger.
Botola Pro, 14 October brought an away meeting with Ittihad Tanger; Maghreb Fès lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. Maghreb Fès hosted Raja Casablanca on 8 October (Botola Pro) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. Hassania Agadir hosted Maghreb Fès (Botola Pro) on 3 October. For Maghreb Fès, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 2-1 was Maghreb Fès's result against CR Khemis Zemamra on 27 September (Botola Pro), playing at home; Maghreb Fès won, with two scored to one conceded. The 12 September fixture (CAF Champions League) paired Maghreb Fès with Rahimo. Maghreb Fès drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero.
ASEC Mimosas's previous five results comprised two wins, two draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 3 conceded. ASC Kara were their latest opponents, at home on 13 September: a 2-1 win.
On 13 September, ASC Kara faced ASEC Mimosas in CAF Champions League: ASEC Mimosas won 2-1 at home, having scored two and conceded one. CAF Champions League, 6 September brought an away meeting with ASC Kara; ASEC Mimosas drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. ASEC Mimosas hosted Power Dynamos on 28 September 2025 (CAF Champions League) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Power Dynamos hosted ASEC Mimosas (CAF Champions League) on 20 September 2025. For ASEC Mimosas, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 0-0 was ASEC Mimosas's result against ES Tunis on 6 April 2024 (CAF Champions League), playing at home; ASEC Mimosas drew, with zero scored to zero conceded.
After the match
Maghreb Fès and ASEC Mimosas drew 1-1 on 18 October 2026. O. Noureddine opened the scoring in the 31st minute for Maghreb Fès to make it 1-0. ASEC Mimosas levelled it in the 93rd minute for ASEC Mimosas to make it 1-1. ASEC Mimosas are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2023/24 CAF Champions League, the 2025/26 CAF Champions League and the 2026/27 CAF Champions League.