Horoya has the better scoring rate (0.76) and Al Merreikh the better defensive one (0.81). On rating it is 1597 against 1506, which the model resolves to 59.8% / 22.5% / 17.6%.
Scorelines above 8%: 5. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +97 and +6. On expected goals the model has it 0.91 against 0.72. Of the individual scorelines, 0-0 carries the most weight at 19.5% — 1-0 is next at 17.8%. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 91 points. Expected shares 71.1% against 28.9% on Elo. The leading outcome clears the second by 37.3 points. Played and finished 1-0. Its point estimate is 0-0. A decisive result carries 77.4% against 22.5% for the draw. Horoya carries the largest share, 59.8%. Spread across the three results is 42.2 points. In absolute terms: Horoya 0.76/0.94, Al Merreikh 0.57/0.81 on attack and defence. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. The home side is rated higher. With 37 and 41 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
six goals for and six against accompanied Horoya's two wins, one draw and two defeats across five outings. A 3-1 win at home to JS Saoura (13 September) was their most recent result.
CAF Champions League, 13 September brought a home meeting with JS Saoura; Horoya won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. Horoya visited JS Saoura on 4 September (CAF Champions League) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. FAR Rabat hosted Horoya (CAF Champions League) on 25 October 2025. For Horoya, the score was 0-3: zero goals scored, three allowed. 1-1 was Horoya's result against FAR Rabat on 19 October 2025 (CAF Champions League), playing at home; Horoya drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 27 September 2025 fixture (CAF Champions League) paired Horoya with Al Hilal. Horoya won 2-0 at home, netting two goals while conceding zero.
Al Merreikh: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; two goals scored, three conceded, keeping three clean sheets. Latest: a 1-0 win away to Power Dynamos on 12 September.
Al Merreikh visited Power Dynamos on 12 September (CAF Champions League) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Power Dynamos travelled to face Al Merreikh (CAF Champions League) on 5 September. For Al Merreikh, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 0-0 was Al Merreikh's result against Saint Eloi Lupopo on 4 October 2025 (CAF Champions League), playing at home; Al Merreikh drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 27 September 2025 fixture (CAF Champions League) paired Al Merreikh with Saint Eloi Lupopo. Al Merreikh lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against FAR Rabat (CAF Champions League), Al Merreikh finished 0-2 on 22 September 2024. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition.
After the match
Horoya edged past Al Merreikh 1-0 on 18 October 2026. Horoya opened the scoring in the 41st minute for Horoya to make it 1-0. Horoya's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 59.8% for a win in this pairing. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0 to 0. Horoya finished with a clean sheet.