3 rated matches is a thin base for EL Merriekh Bentiu; the model still returns 6.7% / 17.7% / 75.5%.
82.2% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Pyramids FC is ahead on each half — 1.49 to 0.99 in attack, 0.48 to 0.88 in defence. The xG line reads 0.72 to 1.76. Spread thin across outcomes, 0-1 highest at 14.8%. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +42 and +400. Scorelines above 8%: 5. EL Merriekh Bentiu's number leans on a 3-match sample. The distribution runs from 75.5% down to 6.7%. The rating gap itself is 358 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Most likely single result is Pyramids FC on 75.5%. Played and finished 0-1. The four component numbers read 0.99, 0.88, 1.49, 0.48. Reduced to one result that is 0-1. Pyramids FC's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 84.4%. Pyramids FC holds a 57.8-point edge on the next outcome. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. The away side is rated higher.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
EL Merriekh Bentiu's previous two results comprised two wins. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 0 conceded, with no defeats. Latest: a 3-0 win away to Heegan on 12 September.
EL Merriekh Bentiu visited Heegan on 12 September (CAF Champions League) and won 3-0; their goals totalled three, compared with zero conceded. Heegan travelled to face EL Merriekh Bentiu (CAF Champions League) on 5 September. For EL Merriekh Bentiu, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed.
Pyramids FC: five wins over five games; 14 goals scored, three conceded, unbeaten. Latest: a 4-1 win at home to Ceramica Cleopatra on 12 October; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 at home to GOR Mahia on 13 September.
Against Ceramica Cleopatra in Egyptian Premier League, Pyramids FC scored four and conceded one on 12 October; the at home result was 4-1. Pyramids FC's away from home game on 17 September (Egyptian Premier League) ended 2-1 against Enppi, with two goals for and one against. On 13 September, GOR Mahia faced Pyramids FC in CAF Champions League: Pyramids FC won 5-1 at home, having scored five and conceded one. Egyptian Premier League, 9 September brought a home meeting with El Gouna FC; Pyramids FC won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. Pyramids FC visited GOR Mahia on 6 September (CAF Champions League) and won 2-0; their goals totalled two, compared with zero conceded.
After the match
Pyramids FC edged past EL Merriekh Bentiu 1-0 on 16 October 2026. Pyramids FC won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 75.5%. Pyramids FC's current recorded form ends with 10 consecutive wins in the 2025/26 Egyptian Premier League, the 2026/27 Egyptian Premier League and the 2026/27 CAF Champions League.