Small-sample warning: 3 matches for Asswehly. Ratings 1574 and 1765, split 20.8% / 23.6% / 55.6%.
Spread across the three results is 34.8 points. 76.4% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Asswehly has the better scoring rate (1.04) and ES Tunis the better defensive one (0.58). Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 0-1 at 14.9%. Top of the distribution: ES Tunis, 55.6%. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 191 points. The away side is rated higher. The match finished 1-0. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +74 and +265. Rounded, that is 0-1. First to second is a 32.0-point step, ES Tunis over the draw. The higher rating expects 67.4% of the points, the lower 32.6%. Raw profiles are 1.04 and 0.83 against 1.00 and 0.58. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Asswehly's number leans on a 3-match sample. Goal expectation splits 0.89 to 1.13.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Asswehly were unbeaten in their last two games, with two wins, scoring four goals and conceding zero. A 3-0 win away to KVZ (13 September) was their most recent result.
13 September: Asswehly won 3-0 against KVZ away from home in CAF Champions League, scoring three goals and allowing zero. Against KVZ in CAF Champions League, Asswehly scored one and conceded zero on 4 September; the at home result was 1-0.
ES Tunis's previous five results comprised four wins and one defeat. Their goal totals were 10 scored and 7 conceded. Latest: a 3-1 win at home to Olympique Béja on 10 October.
On 10 October, Olympique Béja faced ES Tunis in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1: ES Tunis won 3-1 at home, having scored three and conceded one. Tunisia Ligue Pro 1, 13 September brought an away meeting with CS Hammam-Lif; ES Tunis won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. ES Tunis hosted AS Marsa on 6 September (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Jeunesse Sportive Omrane hosted ES Tunis (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1) on 30 August. For ES Tunis, the score was 1-3: one goal scored, three allowed. 3-2 was ES Tunis's result against ES Sahel on 23 August (Tunisia Ligue Pro 1), playing at home; ES Tunis won, with three scored to two conceded.
After the match
Asswehly edged past ES Tunis 1-0 on 18 October 2026. A. Ayed opened the scoring from the penalty spot 64 minutes into the game for Asswehly to make it 1-0. Our current Elo ratings make ES Tunis clearly the stronger side, by 191 rating points over Asswehly, even though it was Asswehly who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Asswehly only a 20.8% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. A clean sheet for Asswehly.