A 290-point rating chasm sits between these two, producing a 80.8% / 15.6% / 3.7% distribution.
Versus the 1500 seed: +258 and -32. 84.5% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Result on the day: 4-1. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-0 on 13.8%. Distance between the ratings: 290 points, wide on this scale. Young Africans holds both halves of the profile — 1.21 against 0.95 for scoring, 0.52 against 1.24 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. 80.8% goes to Young Africans, the model's lean. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Young Africans holds a 65.2-point edge on the next outcome. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-0. Outcomes span 77.1 points. In absolute terms: Young Africans 1.21/0.52, CFFA 0.95/1.24 on attack and defence. They have met once on record — 2026, 4-0 in CAF Champions League, which is too little history to weigh. Young Africans's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 88.5%. Expected goals come out at 2.23 to 0.66. The higher rating belongs to the home side. A 6-match base for CFFA. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Young Africans: three wins, one draw and one defeat over five games; ten goals scored, three conceded. Latest: a 4-0 win away to CFFA on 17 October.
Young Africans visited CFFA on 17 October (CAF Champions League) and won 4-0; their goals totalled four, compared with zero conceded. Gaborone United travelled to face Young Africans (CAF Champions League) on 12 September. For Young Africans, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 1-1 was Young Africans's result against Gaborone United on 5 September (CAF Champions League), playing away from home; Young Africans drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 15 February fixture (CAF Champions League) paired Young Africans with JS Kabylie. Young Africans won 3-0 at home, netting three goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against FAR Rabat (CAF Champions League), Young Africans finished 0-1 on 7 February. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition.
CFFA's previous five results comprised one win, one draw and three defeats. Their goal totals were 6 scored and 10 conceded. Latest: a 4-0 defeat at home to Young Africans on 17 October.
CFFA hosted Young Africans on 17 October (CAF Champions League) and lost 0-4; their goals totalled zero, compared with four conceded. Lijabatho hosted CFFA (CAF Champions League) on 12 September. For CFFA, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 2-0 was CFFA's result against Lijabatho on 5 September (CAF Champions League), playing at home; CFFA won, with two scored to zero conceded. The 17 September 2022 fixture (CAF Champions League) paired CFFA with Royal Leopards. CFFA lost 1-2 away from home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing at home against Royal Leopards (CAF Champions League), CFFA finished 2-3 on 11 September 2022. Their score comprised two goals, against three from the opposition.
Previous meetings in our records: a 4-0 away win for Young Africans on 17 October.
After the match
Young Africans comfortably beat CFFA 4-1 on 21 October 2026. I. Kazimoto opened the scoring in the 27th minute for Young Africans to make it 1-0. Young Africans added to the tally 49 minutes into the game for Young Africans to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Young Africans extended the lead through Young Africans 53 minutes into the game to make it 3-0. CFFA got one back 75 minutes into the game for CFFA to make it 1-3. Young Africans scored the 5th goal for Young Africans late on, in the 82nd minute as they extended the lead to make it 4-1. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Young Africans 290 points stronger than CFFA. Young Africans's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 80.8% for a win in this pairing. Young Africans are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0 to 0.