Petro de Luanda enters 162 points clear of Scotland Mabvuku on rating, which the model reads as 68.6% / 20.1% / 11.3%.
5 scorelines clear 8% individually. The distribution peaks at 1-0, 18.0%, with 0-0 behind it at 15.0%. The edge is split: Scotland Mabvuku scores at the higher rate (0.90 to 0.88), Petro de Luanda concedes at the lower (0.57 to 0.91). Most likely single result is Petro de Luanda on 68.6%. A 57.3-point range top to bottom. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Raw profiles are 0.88 and 0.57 against 0.90 and 0.91. Elo expected shares: 78.7% and 21.3%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +198 and +36. Final score: 3-0. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Goal expectation splits 1.20 to 0.70. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 0-2 in CAF Champions League. A single result carries no predictive load. A 162-point difference on the rating scale. Only 4 rated matches back the Scotland Mabvuku figure. The single-scoreline output is 1-0. Win-or-lose totals 79.9%; the draw takes the rest. First to second is a 48.5-point step, Petro de Luanda over the draw.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Petro de Luanda came into the game with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring four goals and conceding seven. On 18 October, Petro de Luanda recorded a 2-0 defeat visiting Scotland Mabvuku.
Scotland Mabvuku hosted Petro de Luanda (CAF Champions League) on 18 October. For Petro de Luanda, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed. 2-2 was Petro de Luanda's result against Songo on 12 September (CAF Champions League), playing at home; Petro de Luanda drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 6 September fixture (CAF Champions League) paired Petro de Luanda with Songo. Petro de Luanda won 1-0 away from home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing away from home against ES Tunis (CAF Champions League), Petro de Luanda finished 0-2 on 14 February. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition. 7 February: Petro de Luanda drew 1-1 against Simba at home in CAF Champions League, scoring one goal and allowing one.
Scotland Mabvuku's previous three results comprised two wins and one draw. Their goal totals were 3 scored and 0 conceded, keeping three clean sheets, with no defeats. Latest: a 2-0 win at home to Petro de Luanda on 18 October.
On 18 October, Petro de Luanda faced Scotland Mabvuku in CAF Champions League: Scotland Mabvuku won 2-0 at home, having scored two and conceded zero. CAF Champions League, 12 September brought an away meeting with Nsingizini Hotspurs; Scotland Mabvuku drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Scotland Mabvuku hosted Nsingizini Hotspurs on 6 September (CAF Champions League) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded.
The last recorded meeting was a 2-0 home win for Scotland Mabvuku on 18 October.
After the match
Petro de Luanda comfortably beat Scotland Mabvuku 3-0 on 23 October 2026. Petro de Luanda opened the scoring in the 18th minute for Petro de Luanda to make it 1-0. Petro de Luanda added to the tally 67 minutes into the game for Petro de Luanda to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Petro de Luanda extended the lead through Petro de Luanda late on, in the 85th minute to make it 3-0. Petro de Luanda: 68.6% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. Petro de Luanda won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win. Petro de Luanda conceded no goals.