The ratings are far apart — 1734 against 1528, 206 points — and the model turns that into 73.4% / 18.5% / 8.1%.
Result on the day: 3-0. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. There is no trade-off to weigh: MC Alger scores at the higher rate (1.10 to 0.94) and concedes at the lower (0.48 to 0.99). The three results cover 65.3 points. 81.5% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The model's preferred outcome is MC Alger at 73.4%. MC Alger sits 54.9 points above the next most likely result. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-0. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The xG line reads 1.61 to 0.61. The distribution peaks at 1-0, 17.5%, with 2-0 behind it at 14.2%. Rating separation comes to 206 points. They have met once on record — 2026, 0-2 in CAF Champions League, which is too little history to weigh. Raw profiles are 1.10 and 0.48 against 0.94 and 0.99. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Worth noting the base: only 4 rated matches sit behind Enugu Rangers's number. Elo expected shares: 82.6% and 17.4%.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
nine goals for and three against accompanied MC Alger's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings, keeping three clean sheets. On 18 October, MC Alger recorded a 2-0 defeat visiting Enugu Rangers; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to NIGELEC on 12 September.
CAF Champions League, 18 October brought an away meeting with Enugu Rangers; MC Alger lost 0-2, a return of zero goals scored and two conceded. MC Alger visited ASO Chlef on 13 October (Algeria Ligue 1) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Témouchent travelled to face MC Alger (Algeria Ligue 1) on 9 October. For MC Alger, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 2-0 was MC Alger's result against MB Rouisset on 18 September (Algeria Ligue 1), playing at home; MC Alger won, with two scored to zero conceded. The 12 September fixture (CAF Champions League) paired MC Alger with NIGELEC. MC Alger won 5-0 at home, netting five goals while conceding zero.
six goals for and five against accompanied Enugu Rangers's two wins, two draws and one defeat across five outings. A 2-0 win at home to MC Alger (18 October) was their most recent result.
The 18 October fixture (CAF Champions League) paired Enugu Rangers with MC Alger. Enugu Rangers won 2-0 at home, netting two goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against AS Sobemap (CAF Champions League), Enugu Rangers finished 1-1 on 11 September. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 6 September: Enugu Rangers drew 1-1 against AS Sobemap at home in CAF Champions League, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Sagrada Esperança in CAF Champions League, Enugu Rangers scored one and conceded three on 22 September 2024; the away from home result was 1-3. Enugu Rangers's at home game on 13 September 2024 (CAF Champions League) ended 1-0 against Sagrada Esperança, with one goal for and zero against.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-0 home win for Enugu Rangers on 18 October.
After the match
MC Alger comfortably beat Enugu Rangers 3-0 on 23 October 2026. C. Boukholda opened the scoring 58 minutes into the game for MC Alger to make it 1-0. M. Bangoura added to the tally late on, in the 85th minute for MC Alger to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, MC Alger extended the lead through MC Alger in the 92nd minute to make it 3-0. Every goal came after the interval. MC Alger won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 73.4%. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0 to 0. MC Alger won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win. MC Alger finished with a clean sheet.