Before the numbers, the caveat: 3 rated matches behind Star Sport Academy. On that base the model returns 1487 against 1758 and a 12.9% / 20.8% / 66.3% split.
The four component numbers read 0.87, 0.96, 0.96, 0.57. Expected goals 0.74-1.25. Renaissance Berkane holds both halves of the profile — 0.96 against 0.87 for scoring, 0.57 against 0.96 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Most weight falls on 0-1 at 17.1%. Spread across the three results is 53.4 points. Rating separation comes to 271 points. Point estimate: 0-1. Result on the day: 0-2. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. 66.3% goes to Renaissance Berkane, the model's lean. Higher rating: the away side. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -13 and +258. A 3-match base for Star Sport Academy. The higher rating expects 76.6% of the points, the lower 23.4%. 79.2% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The gap between first and second outcome is 45.5 points, Renaissance Berkane ahead of the draw. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Star Sport Academy were unbeaten in their last two games, with two draws, scoring one goal and conceding one. A 1-1 draw away to Medina United (12 September) was their most recent result.
12 September: Star Sport Academy drew 1-1 against Medina United away from home in CAF Champions League, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Medina United in CAF Champions League, Star Sport Academy scored zero and conceded zero on 5 September; the at home result was 0-0.
Renaissance Berkane's previous five results comprised two wins and three draws. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 3 conceded, keeping three clean sheets, with no defeats. Latest: a 2-2 draw at home to CR Khemis Zemamra on 13 October.
On 13 October, CR Khemis Zemamra faced Renaissance Berkane in Botola Pro: Renaissance Berkane drew 2-2 at home, having scored two and conceded two. Botola Pro, 8 October brought an away meeting with UTS Rabat; Renaissance Berkane drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Renaissance Berkane visited Moghreb Tetouan on 27 September (Botola Pro) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. Difaa EL Jadida hosted Renaissance Berkane (Botola Pro) on 5 July. For Renaissance Berkane, the score was 3-1: three goals scored, one allowed. 2-0 was Renaissance Berkane's result against Wydad AC on 2 July (Botola Pro), playing at home; Renaissance Berkane won, with two scored to zero conceded.
After the match
Renaissance Berkane beat Star Sport Academy 2-0 on 16 October 2026. O. Lamlioui opened the scoring in the 37th minute for Renaissance Berkane to make it 1-0. O. Lamlioui added to the tally in the 41st minute for Renaissance Berkane to make it 2-0. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Renaissance Berkane 271 points stronger than Star Sport Academy. 66.3% is Renaissance Berkane's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Renaissance Berkane are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in the 2025/26 Botola Pro, the 2026/27 Botola Pro and the 2026/27 CAF Champions League. Renaissance Berkane finished with a clean sheet.