Small-sample warning: 3 matches for Scotland Mabvuku. Ratings 1551 and 1683, split 27.7% / 25.7% / 46.6%.
A 132-point difference on the rating scale. Attack/defence pairs: 0.96/0.83 and 0.80/0.61. 46.6% goes to Petro de Luanda, the model's lean. A decisive result carries 74.3% against 25.7% for the draw. Petro de Luanda's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 59.5%. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Versus the 1500 seed: +51 and +183. Between best and worst outcome there is 20.9 points of daylight. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Scotland Mabvuku: only 3 rated matches. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 0.96 to 0.80 says Scotland Mabvuku, 0.61 to 0.83 says Petro de Luanda. The single-scoreline output is 0-0. Of the individual scorelines, 0-0 carries the most weight at 17.2% — 0-1 is next at 15.3%. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The match finished 2-0. A 18.9-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Expected goals come out at 0.87 to 0.89.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Scotland Mabvuku: one win and one draw over two games; one goal scored, zero conceded, unbeaten. Nsingizini Hotspurs were their latest opponents, away on 12 September: a 0-0 draw.
On 12 September, Nsingizini Hotspurs faced Scotland Mabvuku in CAF Champions League: Scotland Mabvuku drew 0-0 away from home, having scored zero and conceded zero. CAF Champions League, 6 September brought a home meeting with Nsingizini Hotspurs; Scotland Mabvuku won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded.
four goals for and five against accompanied Petro de Luanda's one win, three draws and one defeat across five outings. A 2-2 draw at home to Songo (12 September) was their most recent result.
Songo travelled to face Petro de Luanda (CAF Champions League) on 12 September. For Petro de Luanda, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 1-0 was Petro de Luanda's result against Songo on 6 September (CAF Champions League), playing away from home; Petro de Luanda won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 14 February fixture (CAF Champions League) paired Petro de Luanda with ES Tunis. Petro de Luanda lost 0-2 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Simba (CAF Champions League), Petro de Luanda finished 1-1 on 7 February. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 31 January: Petro de Luanda drew 0-0 against Stade Malien Bamako at home in CAF Champions League, scoring zero goals and allowing zero.
After the match
Scotland Mabvuku beat Petro de Luanda 2-0 on 18 October 2026. K. Billiat opened the scoring 67 minutes into the game for Scotland Mabvuku to make it 1-0. K. Musona added to the tally 80 minutes into the game for Scotland Mabvuku to make it 2-0. (2') was sent off. Our current Elo ratings make Petro de Luanda clearly the stronger side, by 132 rating points over Scotland Mabvuku, even though it was Scotland Mabvuku who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Scotland Mabvuku only a 27.7% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. Petro de Luanda picked up one red card. Scotland Mabvuku finished with a clean sheet.