The caveat comes first here. Enugu Rangers has only 3 rated matches behind their number, so while the model returns 1540 against 1722 and a 21.8% / 23.9% / 54.3% split, that precision is not earned yet.
The model gives 76.1% to someone winning. The two ratings differ by 182 points. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +40 and +222. The four component numbers read 1.00, 0.91, 1.03, 0.51. Of the individual scorelines, 0-1 carries the most weight at 16.8% — 0-0 is next at 13.3%. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Spread across the three results is 32.5 points. Top of the distribution: MC Alger, 54.3%. Rounded, that is 0-1. The gap between first and second outcome is 30.4 points, MC Alger ahead of the draw. It ended 2-0. MC Alger's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 66.2%. MC Alger holds both halves of the profile — 1.03 against 1.00 for scoring, 0.51 against 0.91 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Only 3 rated matches back the Enugu Rangers figure.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
five goals for and six against accompanied Enugu Rangers's one win, three draws and one defeat across five outings. A 1-1 draw away to AS Sobemap (11 September) was their most recent result.
Enugu Rangers's away from home game on 11 September (CAF Champions League) ended 1-1 against AS Sobemap, with one goal for and one against. On 6 September, AS Sobemap faced Enugu Rangers in CAF Champions League: Enugu Rangers drew 1-1 at home, having scored one and conceded one. CAF Champions League, 22 September 2024 brought an away meeting with Sagrada Esperança; Enugu Rangers lost 1-3, a return of one goal scored and three conceded. Enugu Rangers hosted Sagrada Esperança on 13 September 2024 (CAF Champions League) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Zilimadjou travelled to face Enugu Rangers (CAF Champions League) on 23 August 2024. For Enugu Rangers, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed.
nine goals for and one against accompanied MC Alger's three wins and two draws across five outings, keeping four clean sheets, an unbeaten run. On 13 October, MC Alger recorded a 1-1 draw visiting ASO Chlef; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to NIGELEC on 12 September.
Algeria Ligue 1, 13 October brought an away meeting with ASO Chlef; MC Alger drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. MC Alger hosted Témouchent on 9 October (Algeria Ligue 1) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. MB Rouisset travelled to face MC Alger (Algeria Ligue 1) on 18 September. For MC Alger, the score was 2-0: two goals scored, zero allowed. 5-0 was MC Alger's result against NIGELEC on 12 September (CAF Champions League), playing at home; MC Alger won, with five scored to zero conceded. The 6 September fixture (CAF Champions League) paired MC Alger with NIGELEC. MC Alger drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero.
After the match
Enugu Rangers beat MC Alger 2-0 on 18 October 2026. Enugu Rangers opened the scoring from the penalty spot late on, in the 81st minute for Enugu Rangers to make it 1-0. Enugu Rangers added to the tally late on, in the 85th minute for Enugu Rangers to make it 2-0. O. Benhaoua (53') was sent off. Our current Elo ratings make MC Alger clearly the stronger side, by 182 rating points over Enugu Rangers, even though it was Enugu Rangers who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Enugu Rangers only a 21.8% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0 to 0. MC Alger: one red card. Enugu Rangers kept their opponents scoreless.