275 points is a wide separation: Young Africans rates 1750, CFFA 1475. That resolves to 12.7% / 20.7% / 66.7%.
As a single number the model says 0-1. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The CFFA figure is drawn from 5 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. The tie closed out 0-4. The model gives 79.4% to someone winning. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Expected goals 0.71-1.68. In absolute terms: CFFA 0.96/1.13, Young Africans 1.10/0.50 on attack and defence. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Expected shares 23.0% against 77.0% on Elo. The distribution peaks at 0-1, 15.3%, with 0-2 behind it at 12.9%. Both components point the same way, toward Young Africans: 1.10 to 0.96 going forward, 0.50 to 1.13 going back. A 54.0-point range top to bottom. A 275-point difference on the rating scale. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -25 and +250. A 46.0-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Top of the distribution: Young Africans, 66.7%.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
CFFA came into the game with one win, one draw and two defeats from their last four outings, scoring six goals and conceding six. A 1-1 draw away to Lijabatho (12 September) was their most recent result.
Lijabatho hosted CFFA (CAF Champions League) on 12 September. For CFFA, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 2-0 was CFFA's result against Lijabatho on 5 September (CAF Champions League), playing at home; CFFA won, with two scored to zero conceded. The 17 September 2022 fixture (CAF Champions League) paired CFFA with Royal Leopards. CFFA lost 1-2 away from home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing at home against Royal Leopards (CAF Champions League), CFFA finished 2-3 on 11 September 2022. Their score comprised two goals, against three from the opposition.
Young Africans came into the game with two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding four. On 12 September, Young Africans recorded a 2-1 win hosting Gaborone United; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to JS Kabylie on 15 February.
Young Africans's at home game on 12 September (CAF Champions League) ended 2-1 against Gaborone United, with two goals for and one against. On 5 September, Gaborone United faced Young Africans in CAF Champions League: Young Africans drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. CAF Champions League, 15 February brought a home meeting with JS Kabylie; Young Africans won 3-0, a return of three goals scored and zero conceded. Young Africans visited FAR Rabat on 7 February (CAF Champions League) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. Al Ahly travelled to face Young Africans (CAF Champions League) on 31 January. For Young Africans, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed.
After the match
Young Africans overwhelmed CFFA 4-0 on 17 October 2026. C. Toure opened the scoring in the 40th minute for Young Africans to make it 1-0. A. Kangwanda added to the tally 48 minutes into the game for Young Africans to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Young Africans extended the lead through M. Yahya 55 minutes into the game to make it 3-0. Young Africans scored the 4th goal for Young Africans 59 minutes into the game as they extended the lead to make it 4-0. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Young Africans 275 points stronger than CFFA. Young Africans: 66.7% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. On current ratings the model puts Young Africans at around 1.68 gols in this pairing; they scored 4 here. Young Africans are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form. A clean sheet for Young Africans.