A 153-point edge to Orlando Pirates, which the model prices at 25.2% / 24.9% / 49.9%.
A 153-point difference on the rating scale. Orlando Pirates's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 62.4%. Its rounded call is 0-1. Result on the day: 0-1. Neither component contradicts the other: Orlando Pirates leads 1.10-0.84 forward and 0.66-0.98 back. On expected goals the model has it 0.83 against 1.46. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -50 and +103. A 24.7-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 0-1 at 14.8%. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. In absolute terms: African Stars 0.84/0.98, Orlando Pirates 1.10/0.66 on attack and defence. Top of the distribution: Orlando Pirates, 49.9%. Behind them are 9 and 13 rated matches. Higher rating: the away side. Spread across the three results is 25.0 points. A decisive result carries 75.1% against 24.9% for the draw.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
African Stars: one win and four defeats over five games; three goals scored, six conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Latest: a 2-0 win at home to Mangasport on 12 September.
On 12 September, Mangasport faced African Stars in CAF Champions League: African Stars won 2-0 at home, having scored two and conceded zero. CAF Champions League, 5 September brought an away meeting with Mangasport; African Stars lost 1-3, a return of one goal scored and three conceded. African Stars visited Vipers on 27 September 2025 (CAF Champions League) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. Vipers travelled to face African Stars (CAF Champions League) on 19 September 2025. For African Stars, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 0-1 was African Stars's result against Galaxy on 24 August 2024 (CAF Champions League), playing away from home; African Stars lost, with zero scored to one conceded.
ten goals for and four against accompanied Orlando Pirates's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings, keeping three clean sheets. A 3-1 win at home to La Cure Waves (12 September) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Lioli on 27 September 2025.
Orlando Pirates's at home game on 12 September (CAF Champions League) ended 3-1 against La Cure Waves, with three goals for and one against. On 6 September, La Cure Waves faced Orlando Pirates in CAF Champions League: Orlando Pirates drew 0-0 away from home, having scored zero and conceded zero. CAF Champions League, 25 October 2025 brought a home meeting with Saint Eloi Lupopo; Orlando Pirates won 3-0, a return of three goals scored and zero conceded. Orlando Pirates visited Saint Eloi Lupopo on 19 October 2025 (CAF Champions League) and lost 0-3; their goals totalled zero, compared with three conceded. Lioli travelled to face Orlando Pirates (CAF Champions League) on 27 September 2025. For Orlando Pirates, the score was 4-0: four goals scored, zero allowed.
After the match
Orlando Pirates edged past African Stars 1-0 on 17 October 2026. T. Moremi opened the scoring 78 minutes into the game for Orlando Pirates to make it 1-0. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Orlando Pirates 153 points stronger than African Stars. Orlando Pirates are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2024/25 CAF Champions League, the 2025/26 CAF Champions League and the 2026/27 CAF Champions League. Orlando Pirates finished with a clean sheet.