296 points is a wide separation: Mamelodi Sundowns rates 1842, Wiliete 1546. That resolves to 81.2% / 15.4% / 3.4%.
Raw profiles are 1.03 and 0.47 against 0.92 and 0.90. Most likely single result is Mamelodi Sundowns on 81.2%. 1-0 tops the scoreline distribution on 19.4%. Scorelines above 8%: 5. By expected share of the points: 88.9% and 11.1%. First to second is a 65.8-point step, Mamelodi Sundowns over the draw. The three results cover 77.8 points. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 0-0 in CAF Champions League. A single result carries no predictive load. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +342 and +46. On expected goals the model has it 1.38 against 0.58. Its point estimate is 1-0. Someone wins 84.6% of the time by this model. The two ratings differ by 296 points. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. It ended 1-1. Only 6 rated matches back the Wiliete figure. Mamelodi Sundowns holds both halves of the profile — 1.03 against 0.92 for scoring, 0.47 against 0.90 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
four goals for and one against accompanied Mamelodi Sundowns's three wins and two draws across five outings, keeping four clean sheets, an unbeaten run. A 0-0 draw away to Wiliete (18 October) was their most recent result.
Wiliete hosted Mamelodi Sundowns (CAF Champions League) on 18 October. For Mamelodi Sundowns, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 1-1 was Mamelodi Sundowns's result against FAR Rabat on 24 May (CAF Champions League), playing away from home; Mamelodi Sundowns drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 17 May fixture (CAF Champions League) paired Mamelodi Sundowns with FAR Rabat. Mamelodi Sundowns won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing at home against ES Tunis (CAF Champions League), Mamelodi Sundowns finished 1-0 on 18 April. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 12 April: Mamelodi Sundowns won 1-0 against ES Tunis away from home in CAF Champions League, scoring one goal and allowing zero.
five goals for and five against accompanied Wiliete's two wins, one draw and two defeats across five outings, keeping three clean sheets. A 0-0 draw at home to Mamelodi Sundowns (18 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Foresters on 6 September.
CAF Champions League, 18 October brought a home meeting with Mamelodi Sundowns; Wiliete drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Wiliete visited Foresters on 10 September (CAF Champions League) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Foresters travelled to face Wiliete (CAF Champions League) on 6 September. For Wiliete, the score was 4-0: four goals scored, zero allowed. 0-2 was Wiliete's result against Young Africans on 27 September 2025 (CAF Champions League), playing away from home; Wiliete lost, with zero scored to two conceded. The 19 September 2025 fixture (CAF Champions League) paired Wiliete with Young Africans. Wiliete lost 0-3 at home, netting zero goals while conceding three.
Earlier results between these sides included a 0-0 draw at Wiliete on 18 October.
After the match
Mamelodi Sundowns and Wiliete drew 1-1 on 23 October 2026. T. Matthews opened the scoring inside the first 11 minutes for Mamelodi Sundowns to make it 1-0. Mabululu levelled it 49 minutes into the game for Wiliete to make it 1-1. Mamelodi Sundowns are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form. Wiliete are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form.