This is one of the wider gaps on the slate: 1856 plays 1531, 325 points apart, splitting 8.9% / 18.9% / 72.2%.
5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. 0-1 is the single most probable result at 19.0%, clear of 0-0 on 14.7%. Mamelodi Sundowns leads the distribution by 53.3 points over the draw. The model's preferred outcome is Mamelodi Sundowns at 72.2%. The single-scoreline output is 0-1. The Wiliete figure is drawn from 5 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. In absolute terms: Wiliete 0.93/0.91, Mamelodi Sundowns 1.05/0.45 on attack and defence. A decisive result carries 81.1% against 18.9% for the draw. On expected goals the model has it 0.62 against 1.29. Mamelodi Sundowns is ahead on each half — 1.05 to 0.93 in attack, 0.45 to 0.91 in defence. Mamelodi Sundowns's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 81.7%. The rating gap itself is 325 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +31 and +356. Played and finished 0-0.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Wiliete's previous four results comprised two wins and two defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 5 conceded. Foresters were their latest opponents, away on 10 September: a 1-0 win; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Foresters on 6 September.
Wiliete visited Foresters on 10 September (CAF Champions League) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Foresters travelled to face Wiliete (CAF Champions League) on 6 September. For Wiliete, the score was 4-0: four goals scored, zero allowed. 0-2 was Wiliete's result against Young Africans on 27 September 2025 (CAF Champions League), playing away from home; Wiliete lost, with zero scored to two conceded. The 19 September 2025 fixture (CAF Champions League) paired Wiliete with Young Africans. Wiliete lost 0-3 at home, netting zero goals while conceding three.
Mamelodi Sundowns's previous five results comprised three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 3 conceded, keeping three clean sheets. FAR Rabat were their latest opponents, away on 24 May: a 1-1 draw.
Against FAR Rabat in CAF Champions League, Mamelodi Sundowns scored one and conceded one on 24 May; the away from home result was 1-1. Mamelodi Sundowns's at home game on 17 May (CAF Champions League) ended 1-0 against FAR Rabat, with one goal for and zero against. On 18 April, ES Tunis faced Mamelodi Sundowns in CAF Champions League: Mamelodi Sundowns won 1-0 at home, having scored one and conceded zero. CAF Champions League, 12 April brought an away meeting with ES Tunis; Mamelodi Sundowns won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. Mamelodi Sundowns visited Stade Malien Bamako on 22 March (CAF Champions League) and lost 0-2; their goals totalled zero, compared with two conceded.
After the match
Wiliete and Mamelodi Sundowns could not be separated in a goalless draw on 18 October 2026. Mamelodi Sundowns are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form.