Rated 1536 and 1505, these two produce a 51.3% / 24.6% / 24.1% split. One edge each: scoring to Neftchi (0.99 v 0.79), conceding to Tractor Sazi (0.82 v 1.07).
The match finished 2-2. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +36 and +5. Between best and worst outcome there is 27.2 points of daylight. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 13.1%. Most likely single result is Tractor Sazi on 51.3%. As a single number the model says 1-1. The higher rating expects 63.5% of the points, the lower 36.5%. Higher rating: the home side. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. On expected goals the model has it 1.25 against 1.10. Tractor Sazi holds a 26.7-point edge on the next outcome. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 31 points. Someone wins 75.4% of the time by this model. Raw profiles are 0.79 and 0.82 against 0.99 and 1.07. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Only 4 rated matches back the Neftchi figure.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Tractor Sazi's previous five results comprised one win, one draw and three defeats. Their goal totals were 3 scored and 6 conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Al Ain were their latest opponents, away on 26 October: a 2-1 defeat.
Tractor Sazi visited Al Ain on 26 October (AFC Champions League) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. Al Shamal travelled to face Tractor Sazi (AFC Champions League) on 12 October. For Tractor Sazi, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 0-1 was Tractor Sazi's result against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 14 September (AFC Champions League), playing away from home; Tractor Sazi lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 14 April fixture (AFC Champions League) paired Tractor Sazi with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Tractor Sazi lost 0-3 at home, netting zero goals while conceding three. Playing away from home against Al-Gharafa (AFC Champions League), Tractor Sazi finished 2-0 on 17 February. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition.
Neftchi came into the game with one win and two defeats from their last three outings, scoring three goals and conceding five. On 26 October, Neftchi recorded a 2-1 defeat hosting Al-Ittihad FC.
Al-Ittihad FC travelled to face Neftchi (AFC Champions League) on 26 October. For Neftchi, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 1-3 was Neftchi's result against Al-Nassr on 12 October (AFC Champions League), playing away from home; Neftchi lost, with one scored to three conceded. The 14 September fixture (AFC Champions League) paired Neftchi with Al Quwa Al Jawiya. Neftchi won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero.
After the match
Tractor Sazi and Neftchi drew 2-2 at Sultan Qaboos Sports Complex, Muscat on 2 November 2026. Stipe Perica opened the scoring 55 minutes into the game for Neftchi, set up by Abrorbek ismoilov, to make it 1-0. Tomislav Štrkalj levelled it late on, in the 82nd minute for Tractor Sazi, set up by Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh, to make it 1-1. Neftchi regained the lead through Vladimir Jovović in the 94th minute, set up by Jamshid Iskanderov, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Tractor Sazi drew level through Masoud Kazemayni in the 99th minute, set up by Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh, to make it 2-2. Farshad Faraji (61') was sent off. Yan Medeiros Sasse (78') was booked. Every goal came after the interval. Expected goals put the gap at 0.42 to 2.4. The card tally for Tractor Sazi was one red card. Tractor Sazi made five changes. one yellow card went to Neftchi. The substitution total for Neftchi was five.