The edge is split: Al-Wasl FC scores at the higher rate (1.23 to 0.91), Al Quwa Al Jawiya concedes at the lower (1.14 to 1.31). On rating it is 1535 against 1478, which the model resolves to 55.0% / 23.7% / 21.2%.
Top of the distribution: Al-Wasl FC, 55.0%. The four component numbers read 1.23, 1.31, 0.91, 1.14. Spread across the three results is 33.8 points. The home side is rated higher. The xG line reads 2.07 to 1.61. Someone wins 76.2% of the time by this model. The higher rating expects 66.9% of the points, the lower 33.1%. 57 points of rating separation. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +35 and -22. The ratings draw on 32 and 24 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. A 31.3-point margin separates the top two outcomes. It ended 4-3. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-1 at 8.7%. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. The single-scoreline output is 2-1.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
eight goals for and nine against accompanied Al-Wasl FC's one win, two draws and two defeats across five outings. A 2-2 draw at home to Al-Ittihad Kalba (22 October) was their most recent result.
Al-Ittihad Kalba travelled to face Al-Wasl FC (UAE President's Cup) on 22 October. For Al-Wasl FC, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 2-0 was Al-Wasl FC's result against Baniyas SC on 16 October (UAE Pro League), playing away from home; Al-Wasl FC won, with two scored to zero conceded. The 12 October fixture (AFC Champions League) paired Al-Wasl FC with Al-Ahli Jeddah. Al-Wasl FC lost 1-3 at home, netting one goal while conceding three. Playing away from home against Al-Qadisiyah FC (AFC Champions League), Al-Wasl FC finished 1-2 on 14 September. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 10 September: Al-Wasl FC drew 2-2 against Al Ain away from home in UAE Pro League, scoring two goals and allowing two.
five goals for and eight against accompanied Al Quwa Al Jawiya's two wins and three defeats across five outings. A 1-0 win at home to Pakhtakor (26 October) was their most recent result.
26 October: Al Quwa Al Jawiya won 1-0 against Pakhtakor at home in AFC Champions League, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Al Ain in AFC Champions League, Al Quwa Al Jawiya scored one and conceded four on 12 October; the at home result was 1-4. Al Quwa Al Jawiya's away from home game on 14 September (AFC Champions League) ended 0-1 against Neftchi, with zero goals for and one against. On 4 December 2023, Olmaliq faced Al Quwa Al Jawiya in AFC Champions League: Al Quwa Al Jawiya won 3-2 at home, having scored three and conceded two. AFC Champions League, 27 November 2023 brought an away meeting with Sepahan FC; Al Quwa Al Jawiya lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded.
After the match
Al-Wasl FC edged past Al Quwa Al Jawiya 4-3 at Zabeel Stadium, Dubai on 2 November 2026. Mehdi Taremi opened the scoring inside the first 6 minutes for Al-Wasl FC, set up by Nicolás Giménez, to make it 1-0. Nicolás Giménez added to the tally from the penalty spot in the 17th minute for Al-Wasl FC to make it 2-0. Hareth Hatem pulled one back in the 21st minute for Al Quwa Al Jawiya to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Al-Wasl FC extended the lead through Pedro Jorge Gonçalves Malheiro 46 minutes into the game, set up by Nicolás Giménez, to make it 3-1. With the 5th goal, Al Quwa Al Jawiya reduced the deficit through Haythem Jouini 55 minutes into the game, set up by Moses Orkuma, to make it 2-3. Nicolás Giménez scored the 6th goal for Al-Wasl FC 67 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by Mehdi Taremi, to make it 4-2. Murad Subeh scored the 7th goal for Al Quwa Al Jawiya 80 minutes into the game as they reduced the deficit, set up by Mohammad Sami, to make it 3-4. Abdulrasaq Ridwan Popoola (59'), Abdulameer (70') and Nicolás Giménez (83') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Al-Wasl FC are 57 points stronger than Al Quwa Al Jawiya. Al-Wasl FC won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 55%. two yellow cards went to Al-Wasl FC. Al-Wasl FC: three substitutions. Al Quwa Al Jawiya: one yellow card. Al Quwa Al Jawiya made five changes.