The ratings are far apart — 1675 against 1443, 232 points — and the model turns that into 75.9% / 17.6% / 6.5%.
Most likely single result is Kashima on 75.9%. Attack/defence pairs: 1.58/0.93 and 0.70/1.23. Spread across the three results is 69.4 points. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +175 and -57. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Elo expected shares: 84.7% and 15.3%. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Distance between the ratings: 232 points, wide on this scale. Its point estimate is 2-0. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The xG line reads 2.88 to 0.87. Kashima sits 58.3 points above the next most likely result. 2-0 leads the scorelines at 9.7% — not a strong call. Kashima is ahead on each half — 1.58 to 0.70 in attack, 0.93 to 1.23 in defence. A decisive result carries 82.4% against 17.6% for the draw. Result on the day: 3-0. With 50 and 53 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Kashima came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring nine goals and conceding five, keeping three clean sheets. A 3-2 defeat at home to Kashiwa Reysol (24 October) was their most recent result.
Kashiwa Reysol travelled to face Kashima (J1 League) on 24 October. For Kashima, the score was 2-3: two goals scored, three allowed. 2-2 was Kashima's result against Kyoto Sanga on 21 October (J1 League), playing away from home; Kashima drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 17 October fixture (J1 League) paired Kashima with V-varen Nagasaki. Kashima won 2-0 at home, netting two goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Công An Nhân Dân (AFC Champions League), Kashima finished 1-0 on 13 October. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 9 October: Kashima won 2-0 against Gamba Osaka at home in J1 League, scoring two goals and allowing zero.
Pohang Steelers came into the game with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring four goals and conceding eight, failing to score in three of those games. On 24 October, Pohang Steelers recorded a 2-2 draw visiting Ulsan Hyundai FC.
The 24 October fixture (K League 1) paired Pohang Steelers with Ulsan Hyundai FC. Pohang Steelers drew 2-2 away from home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing at home against FC Anyang (K League 1), Pohang Steelers finished 0-0 on 18 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 13 October: Pohang Steelers lost 0-2 against Johor Darul Takzim FC at home in AFC Champions League, scoring zero goals and allowing two. Against Incheon United in K League 1, Pohang Steelers scored zero and conceded three on 9 October; the away from home result was 0-3. Pohang Steelers's at home game on 20 September (K League 1) ended 2-1 against FC Seoul, with two goals for and one against.
After the match
Kashima comfortably beat Pohang Steelers 3-0 at Mercari Stadium, Kashima on 28 October 2026. Ryuta Koike opened the scoring 69 minutes into the game for Kashima, set up by Matheus Bueno, to make it 1-0. Aleksandar Čavrić added to the tally 75 minutes into the game for Kashima to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Kashima extended the lead through Matheus Bueno late on, in the 87th minute to make it 3-0. Juninho Rocha (79') and Jin Si-woo (85') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Kashima 232 points stronger than Pohang Steelers. Every goal came after the interval. Kashima won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 75.9%. Expected goals put the gap at 1.94 to 0.35. Kashima: five substitutions. two yellow cards went to Pohang Steelers. The substitution total for Pohang Steelers was five. Kashima kept their opponents scoreless.