The rating gap is 382 points here, and the split follows at 5.4% / 16.9% / 77.7%.
Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Rating separation comes to 382 points. Attack/defence pairs: 1.12/1.22 and 1.77/0.63. A 72.3-point range top to bottom. Its point estimate is 1-2. The model gives 83.1% to someone winning. Expected shares 13.9% against 86.1% on Elo. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carries the largest share, 77.7%. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-2 highest at 8.5%. Played and finished 3-1. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +29 and +411. First to second is a 60.8-point step, Al-Hilal Saudi FC over the draw. Both figures rest on decent samples, 147 and 418 matches. Al-Hilal Saudi FC holds both halves of the profile — 1.77 against 1.12 for scoring, 0.63 against 1.22 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Goal expectation splits 1.04 to 2.91.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
Al Shamal: three draws and two defeats over five games; three goals scored, eight conceded, failing to score in three of those games, without a win. Latest: a 3-2 defeat at home to Qatar SC on 23 October.
2-3 was Al Shamal's result against Qatar SC on 23 October (Qatar Stars League), playing at home; Al Shamal lost, with two scored to three conceded. The 17 October fixture (Qatar Stars League) paired Al Shamal with Lusail City. Al Shamal drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Tractor Sazi (AFC Champions League), Al Shamal finished 0-0 on 12 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 8 October: Al Shamal lost 0-4 against Al-Duhail SC at home in Qatar Stars League, scoring zero goals and allowing four. Against Al-Ittihad FC in AFC Champions League, Al Shamal scored one and conceded one on 14 September; the at home result was 1-1.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's previous five results comprised five wins. Their goal totals were 11 scored and 5 conceded, with no defeats. Al-Qadisiyah FC were their latest opponents, away on 23 October: a 3-2 win.
On 23 October, Al-Qadisiyah FC faced Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Saudi Pro League: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-2 away from home, having scored three and conceded two. Saudi Pro League, 19 October brought a home meeting with Al-Hazm; Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. Al-Hilal Saudi FC visited Al Sadd on 13 October (AFC Champions League) and won 2-0; their goals totalled two, compared with zero conceded. Al-Ittihad FC travelled to face Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Saudi Pro League) on 10 October. For Al-Hilal Saudi FC, the score was 3-2: three goals scored, two allowed. 2-1 was Al-Hilal Saudi FC's result against Al-Gharafa on 15 September (AFC Champions League), playing at home; Al-Hilal Saudi FC won, with two scored to one conceded.
After the match
Al Shamal beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-1 on 27 October 2026. Wesley Saïd opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for Al Shamal, set up by Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane, to make it 1-0. Salem Al-Dawsari levelled it in the 32nd minute for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, set up by Theo Hernandez, to make it 1-1. Al Shamal regained the lead through Baghdad Bounedjah 48 minutes into the game, set up by Riyad Mahrez, to make it 2-1. Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane added to the tally 54 minutes into the game for Al Shamal, set up by Riyad Mahrez, to make it 3-1. 7 players were booked, among them Baghdad Bounedjah (37'), Michel Termanini (48'), Wesley Saïd (52'), Simone Inzaghi (70'), Kalidou Koulibaly (71') and Ahmed Suhail (91'). Our current Elo ratings make Al-Hilal Saudi FC clearly the stronger side, by 382 rating points over Al Shamal, even though it was Al Shamal who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Al Shamal only a 5.4% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Al Shamal: five yellow cards. Al Shamal made four changes. Al-Hilal Saudi FC: two yellow cards. Al-Hilal Saudi FC made five changes.