Prior record: 1-1-0 across 2 since 2017. Most recent 2017, 1-1 in AFC Champions League. Against that, current ratings read 1744 and 1665, a 79-point margin, and the model splits the tie 58.2% / 22.9% / 18.8%.
Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 10.9%. Neither figure is thin: 53 and 52 matches respectively sit behind them. Someone wins 77.0% of the time by this model. The home side is rated higher. In absolute terms: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.37/0.84, Esteghlal FC 0.97/0.89 on attack and defence. The rating gap itself is 79 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. Its point estimate is 1-1. First to second is a 35.3-point step, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai over the draw. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +244 and +165. Both components point the same way, toward Shabab Al Ahli Dubai: 1.37 to 0.97 going forward, 0.84 to 0.89 going back. xG: 1.80 to 1.09. Most and least likely outcomes are 39.4 points apart. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 69.6% to 30.4%. Most likely single result is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 58.2%.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai: four wins and one draw over five games; nine goals scored, four conceded, unbeaten. Latest: a 3-2 win at home to Al Ain on 22 October.
3-2 was Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's result against Al Ain on 22 October (UAE President's Cup), playing at home; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won, with three scored to two conceded. The 17 October fixture (UAE Pro League) paired Shabab Al Ahli Dubai with Al Ain. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 2-0 at home, netting two goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Al-Ittihad FC (AFC Champions League), Shabab Al Ahli Dubai finished 2-1 on 13 October. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 14 September: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 1-0 against Tractor Sazi at home in AFC Champions League, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Dubai United in UAE Pro League, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scored one and conceded one on 10 September; the away from home result was 1-1.
Esteghlal FC: three wins, one draw and one defeat over five games; seven goals scored, four conceded, keeping three clean sheets. Latest: a 2-1 win away to Al-Gharafa on 12 October; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Al Sadd on 14 September.
Against Al-Gharafa in AFC Champions League, Esteghlal FC scored two and conceded one on 12 October; the away from home result was 2-1. Esteghlal FC's at home game on 14 September (AFC Champions League) ended 3-0 against Al Sadd, with three goals for and zero against. On 10 March 2025, Al-Nassr faced Esteghlal FC in AFC Champions League: Esteghlal FC lost 0-3 away from home, having scored zero and conceded three. AFC Champions League, 3 March 2025 brought a home meeting with Al-Nassr; Esteghlal FC drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Esteghlal FC visited Al-Rayyan SC on 18 February 2025 (AFC Champions League) and won 2-0; their goals totalled two, compared with zero conceded.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-1 draw at Esteghlal FC on 25 April 2017 and a 2-1 home win for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 20 February 2017.
After the match
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Esteghlal FC 2-0 at Al-Rashid Stadium, Dubai on 27 October 2026. Mateus Dias Lima opened the scoring 69 minutes into the game for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, set up by Sardar Azmoun, to make it 1-0. Juan Alvina added to the tally late on, in the 84th minute for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, set up by Sardar Azmoun, to make it 2-0. Saleh Hardani (41'), S. Bakhtiarizadeh (48'), Saeid Ezatolahi (53') and Amirmohammad Razaghinia (82') were booked. 58.2% is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins in the 2026/27 UAE Pro League, the 2026/27 AFC Champions League and the 2026 UAE President's Cup. one yellow card went to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai: five substitutions. Esteghlal FC: three yellow cards. three changes were recorded for Esteghlal FC. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai conceded no goals.