The rating gap is 228 points here, and the split follows at 17.0% / 22.3% / 60.7%.
Scorelines above 8%: 4. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -122 and +106. The rating gap itself is 228 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Raw profiles are 0.73 and 1.15 against 1.39 and 0.99. The tie closed out 0-0. The away side is rated higher. Outcomes span 43.7 points. The gap between first and second outcome is 38.4 points, Kashiwa Reysol ahead of the draw. Neither component contradicts the other: Kashiwa Reysol leads 1.39-0.73 forward and 0.99-1.15 back. Top of the distribution: Kashiwa Reysol, 60.7%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-2 on 9.9%. The underlying goal expectation is 1.08 for Ratchaburi, 2.16 for Kashiwa Reysol. Kashiwa Reysol's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 71.9%. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 9 and 23 matches. The model gives 77.7% to someone winning. Rounded, that is 1-2.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Ratchaburi's previous five results comprised two draws and three defeats. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 10 conceded, failing to score in four of those games, with no wins. Kyoto Sanga were their latest opponents, away on 13 October: a 1-0 defeat.
On 13 October, Kyoto Sanga faced Ratchaburi in AFC Champions League: Ratchaburi lost 0-1 away from home, having scored zero and conceded one. AFC Champions League, 15 September brought a home meeting with SHANGHAI SIPG; Ratchaburi lost 4-6, a return of four goals scored and six conceded. Ratchaburi visited Johor Darul Takzim FC on 7 July 2021 (AFC Champions League) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. Pohang Steelers travelled to face Ratchaburi (AFC Champions League) on 4 July 2021. For Ratchaburi, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 0-3 was Ratchaburi's result against Nagoya Grampus on 1 July 2021 (AFC Champions League), playing away from home; Ratchaburi lost, with zero scored to three conceded.
13 goals for and eight against accompanied Kashiwa Reysol's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings. On 24 October, Kashiwa Reysol recorded a 3-2 win visiting Kashima; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 at home to Port FC on 14 October.
Kashima hosted Kashiwa Reysol (J1 League) on 24 October. For Kashiwa Reysol, the score was 3-2: three goals scored, two allowed. 0-0 was Kashiwa Reysol's result against FC Tokyo on 21 October (J1 League), playing away from home; Kashiwa Reysol drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 17 October fixture (J1 League) paired Kashiwa Reysol with Nagoya Grampus. Kashiwa Reysol lost 1-3 at home, netting one goal while conceding three. Playing at home against Port FC (AFC Champions League), Kashiwa Reysol finished 5-1 on 14 October. Their score comprised five goals, against one from the opposition. 9 October: Kashiwa Reysol won 4-2 against Vissel Kobe at home in J1 League, scoring four goals and allowing two.
After the match
Ratchaburi and Kashiwa Reysol could not be separated in a goalless draw on 27 October 2026. Ekanit Panya (51'), Tarek aggoun (80') and Pablo Insua (92') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Kashiwa Reysol 228 points stronger than Ratchaburi. Kashiwa Reysol are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 J1 League and the 2026/27 AFC Champions League. Expected goals put the gap at 0.14 to 1.44. The card tally for Ratchaburi was three yellow cards. Ratchaburi made five changes. The substitution total for Kashiwa Reysol was five. A clean sheet for Ratchaburi. Kashiwa Reysol conceded no goals.