This is a genuine coin-flip by the model's reckoning — 34.2% / 27.5% / 38.3%, with nothing above 38.3%.
Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.0%. Expected goals sit at 1.39 against 1.87. Win-or-lose totals 72.5%; the draw takes the rest. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. The away side is rated higher. In absolute terms: SHANGHAI SIPG 0.88/1.35, Công An Nhân Dân 1.03/1.07 on attack and defence. Its point estimate is 1-1. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. A 4.1-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Only 4 rated matches back the Công An Nhân Dân figure. The higher-rated side expects 52.2% of the points; the other side 47.8%. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -77 and +3. Both components point the same way, toward Công An Nhân Dân: 1.03 to 0.88 going forward, 1.07 to 1.35 going back. The model's preferred outcome is Công An Nhân Dân at 38.3%. Distance between the ratings: 80 points, wide on this scale. It ended 2-3. The three outcomes sit within 10.8 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
SHANGHAI SIPG were unbeaten in their last five games, with one win and four draws, scoring seven goals and conceding five, keeping three clean sheets. A 1-1 draw at home to Daejeon Citizen (13 October) was their most recent result.
SHANGHAI SIPG's at home game on 13 October (AFC Champions League) ended 1-1 against Daejeon Citizen, with one goal for and one against. On 15 September, Ratchaburi faced SHANGHAI SIPG in AFC Champions League: SHANGHAI SIPG won 6-4 away from home, having scored six and conceded four. AFC Champions League, 18 February brought a home meeting with Ulsan Hyundai FC; SHANGHAI SIPG drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. SHANGHAI SIPG visited Gangwon FC on 11 February (AFC Champions League) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. Johor Darul Takzim FC hosted SHANGHAI SIPG (AFC Champions League) on 9 December 2025. For SHANGHAI SIPG, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed.
Công An Nhân Dân came into the game with one win and two defeats from their last three outings, scoring three goals and conceding five. A 1-0 defeat at home to Kashima (13 October) was their most recent result.
Kashima travelled to face Công An Nhân Dân (AFC Champions League) on 13 October. For Công An Nhân Dân, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 1-4 was Công An Nhân Dân's result against Gamba Osaka on 15 September (AFC Champions League), playing away from home; Công An Nhân Dân lost, with one scored to four conceded. The 11 August fixture (AFC Champions League) paired Công An Nhân Dân with Adelaide United. Công An Nhân Dân won 2-0 away from home, netting two goals while conceding zero.
After the match
Công An Nhân Dân edged past SHANGHAI SIPG 3-2 on 27 October 2026. Brayan Perea opened the scoring in the 35th minute for Công An Nhân Dân, set up by Léo Arthur, to make it 1-0. Prince Ampem levelled it in the 44th minute for SHANGHAI SIPG, set up by Jaume Grau, to make it 1-1. Công An Nhân Dân regained the lead through Léo Arthur 49 minutes into the game, set up by Brayan Perea, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, SHANGHAI SIPG drew level through Miguel Campos 60 minutes into the game to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, Công An Nhân Dân restored the lead through Brayan Perea 69 minutes into the game, set up by Léo Arthur, to make it 3-2. Frans Putros (37'), Stefan Mauk (47') and Le Van Do (57') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Công An Nhân Dân are 80 points stronger than SHANGHAI SIPG. SHANGHAI SIPG: five substitutions. Công An Nhân Dân: three yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Công An Nhân Dân.