A 175-point rating chasm sits between these two, producing a 70.0% / 19.6% / 10.3% distribution.
Spread thin across outcomes, 1-0 highest at 10.9%. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Its point estimate is 1-0. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. A 59.7-point range top to bottom. Both components point the same way, toward Johor Darul Takzim FC: 1.03 to 0.85 going forward, 0.80 to 1.28 going back. The home side is rated higher. Behind them are 55 and 12 rated matches. Someone wins 80.3% of the time by this model. Johor Darul Takzim FC leads the distribution by 50.4 points over the draw. The model's preferred outcome is Johor Darul Takzim FC at 70.0%. The four component numbers read 1.03, 0.80, 0.85, 1.28. Expected goals sit at 1.97 against 0.92. By expected share of the points: 79.9% and 20.1%. Final score: 3-0. Distance between the ratings: 175 points, wide on this scale. Versus the 1500 seed: +105 and -70.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Johor Darul Takzim FC's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 5 conceded. Pohang Steelers were their latest opponents, away on 13 October: a 2-0 win.
On 13 October, Pohang Steelers faced Johor Darul Takzim FC in AFC Champions League: Johor Darul Takzim FC won 2-0 away from home, having scored two and conceded zero. AFC Champions League, 15 September brought a home meeting with Buriram United; Johor Darul Takzim FC drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Johor Darul Takzim FC visited Al-Ahli Jeddah on 17 April (AFC Champions League) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. Sanfrecce Hiroshima hosted Johor Darul Takzim FC (AFC Champions League) on 11 March. For Johor Darul Takzim FC, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 3-1 was Johor Darul Takzim FC's result against Sanfrecce Hiroshima on 4 March (AFC Champions League), playing at home; Johor Darul Takzim FC won, with three scored to one conceded.
Port FC: one win and four defeats over five games; seven goals scored, 12 conceded. Latest: a 5-1 defeat away to Kashiwa Reysol on 14 October; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 away to Guangzhou Evergrande FC on 9 July 2021.
1-5 was Port FC's result against Kashiwa Reysol on 14 October (AFC Champions League), playing away from home; Port FC lost, with one scored to five conceded. The 16 September fixture (AFC Champions League) paired Port FC with Vissel Kobe. Port FC lost 1-2 at home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing away from home against Hangzhou Greentown (AFC Champions League), Port FC finished 0-1 on 22 August 2023. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 15 March 2022: Port FC lost 0-3 against Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home in AFC Champions League, scoring zero goals and allowing three. Against Guangzhou Evergrande FC in AFC Champions League, Port FC scored five and conceded one on 9 July 2021; the away from home result was 5-1.
After the match
Johor Darul Takzim FC comfortably beat Port FC 3-0 on 27 October 2026. Jonathan Silva opened the scoring 53 minutes into the game for Johor Darul Takzim FC, set up by Arif Aiman bin Mohd Hanapi, to make it 1-0. Bergson Gustavo Silveira da Silva added to the tally 62 minutes into the game for Johor Darul Takzim FC, set up by Oscar Arribas, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Johor Darul Takzim FC extended the lead through Stoichkov late on, in the 86th minute, set up by Matías Nahuel, to make it 3-0. Bergson Gustavo Silveira da Silva (63'), Stoichkov (88') and Suphanan Bureerat (89') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Johor Darul Takzim FC 175 points stronger than Port FC. Every goal came after the interval. Johor Darul Takzim FC won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 70%. Port FC's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in the 2020/21 AFC Champions League, the 2021/22 AFC Champions League, the 2023/24 AFC Champions League and the 2026/27 AFC Champions League. Expected goals put the gap at 2.07 to 0.15. Johor Darul Takzim FC: two yellow cards. Johor Darul Takzim FC made four changes. one yellow card went to Port FC. The substitution total for Port FC was four. A clean sheet for Johor Darul Takzim FC.