On record: 3 meetings from 2019, 1-3 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2021, 0-1 in AFC Champions League. Currently 1491 against 1582 — a 32.7% / 27.1% / 40.2% split.
Scorelines above 8%: 4. Pakhtakor leads the distribution by 7.5 points over Al Quwa Al Jawiya. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 0.82 to 0.77 says Al Quwa Al Jawiya, 0.94 to 1.02 says Pakhtakor. A decisive result carries 72.9% against 27.1% for the draw. Versus the 1500 seed: -9 and +82. Expected goals 1.15-1.06. 40.2% goes to Pakhtakor, the model's lean. A 91-point spread sits between the two figures. Behind them are 23 and 54 rated matches. Attack/defence pairs: 0.82/1.02 and 0.77/0.94. The higher-rated side expects 53.7% of the points; the other side 46.3%. The three results cover 13.1 points. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 13.4%. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. It ended 1-0.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
Al Quwa Al Jawiya: two wins and three defeats over five games; six goals scored, eight conceded. Latest: a 4-1 defeat at home to Al Ain on 12 October.
Playing at home against Al Ain (AFC Champions League), Al Quwa Al Jawiya finished 1-4 on 12 October. Their score comprised one goal, against four from the opposition. 14 September: Al Quwa Al Jawiya lost 0-1 against Neftchi away from home in AFC Champions League, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Olmaliq in AFC Champions League, Al Quwa Al Jawiya scored three and conceded two on 4 December 2023; the at home result was 3-2. Al Quwa Al Jawiya's away from home game on 27 November 2023 (AFC Champions League) ended 0-1 against Sepahan FC, with zero goals for and one against. On 6 November 2023, Al-Ittihad FC faced Al Quwa Al Jawiya in AFC Champions League: Al Quwa Al Jawiya won 2-0 at home, having scored two and conceded zero.
six goals for and six against accompanied Pakhtakor's two wins, two draws and one defeat across five outings. A 1-1 draw at home to Al-Qadisiyah FC (12 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Al Hussein on 11 August.
Al-Qadisiyah FC travelled to face Pakhtakor (AFC Champions League) on 12 October. For Pakhtakor, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 1-1 was Pakhtakor's result against Al-Ahli Jeddah on 14 September (AFC Champions League), playing away from home; Pakhtakor drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 11 August fixture (AFC Champions League) paired Pakhtakor with Al Hussein. Pakhtakor won 3-0 at home, netting three goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Al-Hilal Saudi FC (AFC Champions League), Pakhtakor finished 0-4 on 11 March 2025. Their score comprised zero goals, against four from the opposition. 4 March 2025: Pakhtakor won 1-0 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home in AFC Champions League, scoring one goal and allowing zero.
Previous meetings in our records: a 1-0 home win for Pakhtakor on 29 April 2021 and a 0-0 draw at Al Quwa Al Jawiya on 17 April 2021.
After the match
Al Quwa Al Jawiya edged past Pakhtakor 1-0 on 26 October 2026. Abdulameer opened the scoring 70 minutes into the game for Al Quwa Al Jawiya, set up by Acheref Boudrama, to make it 1-0. Abdurauf Buriev (31'), Sardor Sabirkhodjaev (78') and Acheref Boudrama (82') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Pakhtakor slightly the stronger side, by 91 rating points over Al Quwa Al Jawiya, even though it was Al Quwa Al Jawiya who won this one. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0.38 to 1.03. Al Quwa Al Jawiya won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 3 meetings without a win. Al Quwa Al Jawiya picked up one yellow card. Al Quwa Al Jawiya: five substitutions. Pakhtakor picked up two yellow cards. Pakhtakor: three substitutions. Al Quwa Al Jawiya conceded no goals.