A 65.1% / 21.1% / 13.8% split off ratings of 1673 and 1542. Neither side holds both halves — Al Ain scores at 1.45, Tractor Sazi concedes at 0.78.
Scorelines above 8%: 3. 65.1% goes to Al Ain, the model's lean. By expected share of the points: 75.6% and 24.4%. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +173 and +42. A 131-point spread sits between the two figures. Its point estimate is 1-1. The home side is rated higher. The leading outcome clears the second by 44.0 points. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 11.2% — not a strong call. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 79 and 34 matches. A 51.3-point range top to bottom. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. The four component numbers read 1.45, 1.25, 0.74, 0.78. Result on the day: 2-1. Win-or-lose totals 78.9%; the draw takes the rest. Expected goals 1.69-1.26.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Al Ain came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring 12 goals and conceding eight. On 22 October, Al Ain recorded a 3-2 defeat visiting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Al-Nassr on 15 September.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hosted Al Ain (UAE President's Cup) on 22 October. For Al Ain, the score was 2-3: two goals scored, three allowed. 0-2 was Al Ain's result against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 17 October (UAE Pro League), playing away from home; Al Ain lost, with zero scored to two conceded. The 12 October fixture (AFC Champions League) paired Al Ain with Al Quwa Al Jawiya. Al Ain won 4-1 away from home, netting four goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Al-Nassr (AFC Champions League), Al Ain finished 4-0 on 15 September. Their score comprised four goals, against zero from the opposition. 10 September: Al Ain drew 2-2 against Al-Wasl FC at home in UAE Pro League, scoring two goals and allowing two.
two goals for and six against accompanied Tractor Sazi's one win, one draw and three defeats across five outings, failing to score in four of those games. A 0-0 draw at home to Al Shamal (12 October) was their most recent result.
Al Shamal travelled to face Tractor Sazi (AFC Champions League) on 12 October. For Tractor Sazi, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 0-1 was Tractor Sazi's result against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 14 September (AFC Champions League), playing away from home; Tractor Sazi lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 14 April fixture (AFC Champions League) paired Tractor Sazi with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Tractor Sazi lost 0-3 at home, netting zero goals while conceding three. Playing away from home against Al-Gharafa (AFC Champions League), Tractor Sazi finished 2-0 on 17 February. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition. 10 February: Tractor Sazi lost 0-2 against Al Sadd at home in AFC Champions League, scoring zero goals and allowing two.
After the match
Al Ain edged past Tractor Sazi 2-1 at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain on 26 October 2026. Ramy Rabia opened the scoring in the 21st minute for Al Ain, set up by Rafa Rodrigues, to make it 1-0. Tibor Halilović levelled it 55 minutes into the game for Tractor Sazi to make it 1-1. Al Ain regained the lead through Houssine Rahimi 70 minutes into the game, set up by Yahya Benkhaleq, to make it 2-1. Al Ain: 65.1% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. Al Ain made five changes. Tractor Sazi: five substitutions.