Sample size is the first thing to note. Neftchi carries 3 rated matches, so while the split reads 15.3% / 21.7% / 63.1% off ratings of 1500 and 1745, the confidence is thin.
Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: 0 and +245. Neftchi: only 3 rated matches. Its point estimate is 1-1. Al-Ittihad FC is ahead on each half — 1.40 to 0.96 in attack, 0.85 to 1.04 in defence. Someone wins 78.4% of the time by this model. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Elo expected shares: 26.2% and 73.8%. 245 points of rating separation. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 9.9% — not a strong call. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. In absolute terms: Neftchi 0.96/1.04, Al-Ittihad FC 1.40/0.85 on attack and defence. Expected goals come out at 1.21 to 1.98. A 41.4-point margin separates the top two outcomes. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Final score: 1-2. Top of the distribution: Al-Ittihad FC, 63.1%. The three results cover 47.8 points.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Neftchi's previous two results comprised one win and one defeat. Their goal totals were 2 scored and 3 conceded. Al-Nassr were their latest opponents, away on 12 October: a 3-1 defeat.
On 12 October, Al-Nassr faced Neftchi in AFC Champions League: Neftchi lost 1-3 away from home, having scored one and conceded three. AFC Champions League, 14 September brought a home meeting with Al Quwa Al Jawiya; Neftchi won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded.
Al-Ittihad FC's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 10 scored and 7 conceded. Al Diriyah were their latest opponents, at home on 23 October: a 2-0 win; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 away to Al-Ettifaq on 20 October.
Against Al Diriyah in Saudi Pro League, Al-Ittihad FC scored two and conceded zero on 23 October; the at home result was 2-0. Al-Ittihad FC's away from home game on 20 October (Saudi Pro League) ended 4-1 against Al-Ettifaq, with four goals for and one against. On 13 October, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai faced Al-Ittihad FC in AFC Champions League: Al-Ittihad FC lost 1-2 at home, having scored one and conceded two. Saudi Pro League, 10 October brought an away meeting with Al-Hilal Saudi FC; Al-Ittihad FC lost 2-3, a return of two goals scored and three conceded. Al-Ittihad FC visited Al Shamal on 14 September (AFC Champions League) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded.
After the match
Al-Ittihad FC edged past Neftchi 2-1 on 26 October 2026. Jamshid Iskanderov opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 17th minute for Neftchi to make it 1-0. Houssem Aouar levelled it in the 34th minute for Al-Ittihad FC, set up by Steven Bergwijn, to make it 1-1. Youssef En-Nesyri put Al-Ittihad FC in front late on, in the 90th minute to make it 2-1. Michel (32'), Richard Ríos Montoya (80') and Farrukh Sayfiev (89') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Al-Ittihad FC 245 points stronger than Neftchi. Al-Ittihad FC won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 63.1%. Al-Ittihad FC are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Saudi Pro League and the 2026/27 AFC Champions League. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.46 to 1.1. The card tally for Neftchi was two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Neftchi. one yellow card went to Al-Ittihad FC. The substitution total for Al-Ittihad FC was five. The lead changed hands once in the scoring sequence. Al-Ittihad FC turned a deficit into victory.