Rated 1692 and 1599, these two produce a 60.0% / 22.5% / 17.5% split. Vissel Kobe is ahead on each half — 1.27 to 0.97 in attack, 0.83 to 0.89 in defence.
Raw profiles are 1.27 and 0.83 against 0.97 and 0.89. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. First to second is a 37.5-point step, Vissel Kobe over the draw. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Played and finished 2-0. The distribution runs from 60.0% down to 17.5%. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +192 and +99. Someone wins 77.5% of the time by this model. The model's preferred outcome is Vissel Kobe at 60.0%. Ratings sit 93 apart. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Elo expected shares: 71.3% and 28.7%. The underlying goal expectation is 1.68 for Vissel Kobe, 1.08 for Jeonbuk Motors. Neither figure is thin: 48 and 81 matches respectively sit behind them. They have met once on record — 2022, 1-3 in AFC Champions League, which is too little history to weigh. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.5% leads, but only just.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Vissel Kobe: four wins and one defeat over five games; ten goals scored, seven conceded. Kashiwa Reysol were their latest opponents, away on 9 October: a 4-2 defeat.
On 9 October, Kashiwa Reysol faced Vissel Kobe in J1 League: Vissel Kobe lost 2-4 away from home, having scored two and conceded four. J1 League, 20 September brought an away meeting with Gamba Osaka; Vissel Kobe won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. Vissel Kobe visited Port FC on 16 September (AFC Champions League) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Kashima travelled to face Vissel Kobe (J1 League) on 11 September. For Vissel Kobe, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 3-1 was Vissel Kobe's result against V-varen Nagasaki on 6 September (J1 League), playing at home; Vissel Kobe won, with three scored to one conceded.
Jeonbuk Motors's previous five results comprised one win, two draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 8 conceded. Daejeon Citizen were their latest opponents, away on 9 October: a 2-1 defeat.
On 9 October, Daejeon Citizen faced Jeonbuk Motors in K League 1: Jeonbuk Motors lost 1-2 away from home, having scored one and conceded two. K League 1, 20 September brought a home meeting with Gwangju FC; Jeonbuk Motors drew 2-2, a return of two goals scored and two conceded. Jeonbuk Motors hosted Kashiwa Reysol on 16 September (AFC Champions League) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. FC Seoul travelled to face Jeonbuk Motors (K League 1) on 12 September. For Jeonbuk Motors, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 1-1 was Jeonbuk Motors's result against Gangwon FC on 9 September (K League 1), playing away from home; Jeonbuk Motors drew, with one scored to one conceded.
Earlier results between these sides included a 3-1 away win for Jeonbuk Motors on 22 August 2022.
After the match
Vissel Kobe beat Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 at Noevir Stadium, Kobe on 14 October 2026. Yuya Osako opened the scoring inside the first 11 minutes for Vissel Kobe, set up by Katsuya Nagato, to make it 1-0. Yuya Kuwasaki added to the tally 68 minutes into the game for Vissel Kobe, set up by Yoshinori Muto, to make it 2-0. 60% is Vissel Kobe's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.26 to 1.73. Vissel Kobe won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win. The substitution total for Vissel Kobe was two. four changes were recorded for Jeonbuk Motors. Vissel Kobe kept their opponents scoreless.