1708 plays 1701; the model splits it 47.5% / 25.5% / 27.0%. Both components point the same way, toward Shabab Al Ahli Dubai: 1.29 to 1.28 going forward, 0.91 to 1.00 going back.
Rounded, that is 1-1. The leading outcome clears the second by 20.5 points. The two ratings differ by 7 points. Result on the day: 1-2. A decisive result carries 74.5% against 25.5% for the draw. Expected goals sit at 1.73 against 1.76. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +208 and +201. The home side is rated higher. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Most likely single result is Al-Ittihad FC on 47.5%. Neither figure is thin: 351 and 50 matches respectively sit behind them. In absolute terms: Al-Ittihad FC 1.28/1.00, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.29/0.91 on attack and defence. On the Elo curve they expect 60.2% and 39.8% of the points. One recorded prior meeting: 2025, 0-1 in AFC Champions League. A single result carries no predictive load. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. The three results cover 22.0 points. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 9.3% leads, but only just.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Al-Ittihad FC came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring ten goals and conceding seven. On 10 October, Al-Ittihad FC recorded a 3-2 defeat visiting Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
The 10 October fixture (Saudi Pro League) paired Al-Ittihad FC with Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Al-Ittihad FC lost 2-3 away from home, netting two goals while conceding three. Playing away from home against Al Shamal (AFC Champions League), Al-Ittihad FC finished 1-1 on 14 September. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 11 September: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-1 against Al-Faisaly FC away from home in Saudi Pro League, scoring three goals and allowing one. Against Al-Fayha in Saudi Pro League, Al-Ittihad FC scored two and conceded one on 8 September; the at home result was 2-1. Al-Ittihad FC's at home game on 5 September (Saudi Pro League) ended 2-1 against Al-Nassr, with two goals for and one against.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's previous five results comprised three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal totals were 6 scored and 4 conceded, keeping three clean sheets. Tractor Sazi were their latest opponents, at home on 14 September: a 1-0 win.
On 14 September, Tractor Sazi faced Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in AFC Champions League: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 1-0 at home, having scored one and conceded zero. UAE Pro League, 10 September brought an away meeting with Dubai United; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hosted Al-Jazira on 5 September (UAE Pro League) and lost 1-3; their goals totalled one, compared with three conceded. Al-Wasl FC hosted Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (UAE Pro League) on 28 August. For Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 2-0 was Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's result against Al-Dhafra on 22 August (UAE Pro League), playing at home; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won, with two scored to zero conceded.
Previous meetings in our records: a 1-0 away win for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 30 September 2025.
After the match
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edged past Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 on 13 October 2026. Sardar Azmoun opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, set up by Guilherme da Silva Goncalves, to make it 1-0. Sardar Azmoun added to the tally in the 16th minute for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, set up by Reza Ghandipour, to make it 2-0. Richard Ríos Montoya pulled one back 66 minutes into the game for Al-Ittihad FC, set up by Marwan Al-Sahafi, to make it 1-2. Richard Ríos Montoya (88') was booked. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai only a 27% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.49 to 1.35. The card tally for Al-Ittihad FC was one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Al-Ittihad FC. The substitution total for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai was five.